Coming Soon:

The following books by Robert Paul Wolff are available on Amazon.com as e-books: KANT'S THEORY OF MENTAL ACTIVITY, THE AUTONOMY OF REASON, UNDERSTANDING MARX, UNDERSTANDING RAWLS, THE POVERTY OF LIBERALISM, A LIFE IN THE ACADEMY, MONEYBAGS MUST BE SO LUCKY, AN INTRODUCTION TO THE USE OF FORMAL METHODS IN POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY.
Now Available: Volumes I, II, III, and IV of the Collected Published and Unpublished Papers.

NOW AVAILABLE ON YOUTUBE: LECTURES ON KANT'S CRITIQUE OF PURE REASON. To view the lectures, go to YouTube and search for "Robert Paul Wolff Kant." There they will be.

To contact me about organizing, email me at rpwolff750@gmail.com




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Sunday, January 31, 2016

GETTING READY FOR DATA

On December 20th, I posted my calculations of probable Trump delegate counts state by state, assuming a certain pattern of the vote.  Now that actual primary/caucus season is upon us, I plan to re-post an updated and corrected spreadsheet [with assistance from my son Patrick] each time another primary or caucus is held, comparing the actual results with my estimates.

Just to remind you, my basic assumption [NOT A PREDICTION!] is that Trump pulls 35-40% of the vote consistently, with Cruz and Rubio between them taking another 45-55% and the remaining votes going to various other candidates.

Recall that a candidate needs 1273 delegates to secure the nomination, and that I am assuming Trump will get the endorsement of virtually none of the unelected super-delegates.

Here is the spreadsheet I shall be filling in state by state:

State Pledged Delegates Likely Trump Actual Trump
New Hampshire 20 7
South Carolina 50 41
Alabama 47 32
Arkansas 37 14
Georgia 76 40
Massachusetts 39 14
Okalahoma 40 20
Tennessee 55 28
Texas 152 86
Vermont 16 6
Virginia 46 17
Louisiana 44 16
Idaho 29 10
Mississippi 37 14
Michigan 56 21
Puero Rico 20 7
Ohio 63 63
Florida 99 99
Illinois 66 25
Missouri 49 34
North Carolina 72 25
Arizona 58 58
Wisconsin 42 30
New York 92 52
Connecticut 25 14
Delaware 16 16
Maryland 38 29
Pennsylvania 68 14
Rhode Island 16 6
Indiana 54 45
West Virginia 31 18
Oregon 25 9
California 169 145
Montana 24 24
New Jersey 48 48
New Mexico 21 8
South Dakota 26 26
Nebraska 33 33
Washington 41 14
1940 1208
Caucus States
Iowa 30
Nevada 30
Alaska 25
Colorado 34
Minnesota 35
North Dakota 25
Wyoming 26
Kansas 40
Kentucky 42
Maine 20
Hawaii 16
District of Columbia 19
Northern Mariana Islands 6
Virgin Islands 6
Utah 40
394
Territorial Convention
Guam 6
American Samoa 6
12
Trump Total 0
Needed to Win 1273

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