Coming Soon:

The following books by Robert Paul Wolff are available on Amazon.com as e-books: KANT'S THEORY OF MENTAL ACTIVITY, THE AUTONOMY OF REASON, UNDERSTANDING MARX, UNDERSTANDING RAWLS, THE POVERTY OF LIBERALISM, A LIFE IN THE ACADEMY, MONEYBAGS MUST BE SO LUCKY, AN INTRODUCTION TO THE USE OF FORMAL METHODS IN POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY.
Now Available: Volumes I, II, III, and IV of the Collected Published and Unpublished Papers.

NOW AVAILABLE ON YOUTUBE: LECTURES ON KANT'S CRITIQUE OF PURE REASON
LECTURE ONE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__In2PQS60
LECTURE TWO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Al7O2puvdDA

ALSO AVAILABLE ON YOUTUBE: LECTURES ONE THROUGH TEN ON IDEOLOGICAL CRITIQUE



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Wednesday, April 6, 2016

WISHING WILL MAKE IT SO

In my never-ending struggle to see a glass less than half-full as almost overflowing, I undertook a little experiment.  General elections are won by electoral votes, not by total popular votes or anything else.  So when Hillary Clinton has big wins during the Primaries in states that no Democrat is going to carry in the Fall, then we ought to discount those wins as having no relevance for the General Election, right?  [You can see where this is going].  I started with the list of states Obama won in 2012, and then put in Bernie’s column the states where he has already won a primary or caucus and put in Hillary’s column the states where she has done the same.  Then I looked up the electoral votes each state will have in 2016, and added them up.  Here are the results:

Not Yet Decided:  New York, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, New Jersey, DC, New Mexico, Oregon,

Bernie has won:  Wisconsin [10], Vermont [3], Colorado [9], Iowa [3], Hawaii [4], Michigan [16], Washington [12], Maine [4], Minnesota [10], New Hampshire [4] = 75 electoral votes

Hillary has won: Florida [29], Iowa [3], Nevada [6], Massachusetts [11], Ohio [18], Illinois [20], Virginia [13] = 100 electoral votes

The next Obama state to hold its primary is New York, which has 29 electoral votes. 
Which means that if Bernie can pull out a win in New York, he will be leading in the RELEVANT electoral vote count.


So there.

10 comments:

Chris said...

Since March 15th he needed 56% of the remaining total delegates left to take a pledged delegate lead. He has won all but one election with staggering numbers (70%+). There's a real shot here. A real shot.

Chris said...

This orthodox Marxist is feeling the Bern so bad, I've scheduled myself for a full STD panel and prostate check.

Jim Westrich said...

I think one under-reported story in this election is how the two front runner candidates both have unfavorability ratings with over half the potential voters. What does this mean for democracy and potential for change?

I do not think this has ever been true in the U.S. (although I think "unfavorability polling" was an invention in the 1980's).

Simon said...

The problem is that working class whites have all left the Democratic Party, so especially in the South, many of the people whom Sanders would help have left the Democratic Party. Progressives have to win them back. And that effort has to take working class people as they are. We won't reach working class people with college-level discourse, because they don't go to college. We have to learn to speak the language of the working class again.

Robert Paul Wolff said...

I agree. Unfortunately, the language of the working class is too conceptually sophisticated for the college educated. It requires a grasp of such ideas as exploitation and immiseration and false consciousness.

Warren Goldfarb said...

I can see that one could ascribe a grasp of "exploitation" and "immiseration" to the working class; but I don't see any reason to think members of that class understand "false consciousness", since if they did the appeal to racism (and other so-called "social issues") that so fueled the movement of the members of that class to the Republican Party would not have worked as well.

Robert Paul Wolff said...

Oh, to be sure, Warren. I was being sardonic. Sufficient unto the day ...

Utopian Yuri said...

Wouldn't the relevant states be the ones that could go to either party in the general election, though? States like Massachusetts, Vermont, and Hawaii will go Democrat whether it's Hillary or Bernie.

Robert Paul Wolff said...

Yes, but I was trying to make the best case I could for Bernie, so I cherry-picked my facts. :)

Utopian Yuri said...

Here's my best-case scenario for Bernie: the economy crashes in the next few months. Bernie wins every remaining primary. An angry Philly mob storms the convention and runs Hillary out of town. Bernie clobbers Trump in the general election. Congress, responding to the public mood, enacts Bernie's agenda. Clinton wises up in her old age and finally stops running for office. The Clintons donate their money to organizations fighting mass incarceration, the death penalty, "free" "trade" "agreements", and clintonism generally.