Here is a simple, foolproof way of figuring out how the election will go.
1. Necessary truth: 100% of those who vote will be either men or women.
2. Highly probable prediction: At least 50%, and probably a bit more than 50%, of those who vote will be women. [Projection from recent elections]
3. Strong Polling Indication: More men will vote for Trump than for Clinton. More women will vote for Clinton than for Trump. The two “gender gaps.”
4. Current Polling Results: Trump’s gender gap advantage with men is smaller than Clinton’s gender gap advantage with women.
Inference: If point 4 holds up, Clinton will win the popular vote [simple arithmetic.]
If Clinton wins the popular vote, she will almost certainly win the Electoral Vote.
Recommendation: Periodically check the gender gap polling. Instead of spending the time surfing the political commentary on the Web, read the Critique.