Sunday, August 21, 2016
GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS
Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium has sharpened his projection of the outcome of the election. The good news is that he has upped his estimate of the Bayesian probability of a Clinton win to 95%. The bad news is that his reasoning has the secondaery implication that a Clinton blowout is much less likely, which I assume [he does not say] implies that it is also much less likely that the Democrats will retake the House. I figure you cannot pick and choose which consequences of a mathematical calculation you like and which you don't. We shall all just have to work that much harder.