Like many, I have been obsessed by the Kavanaugh nomination, the testimony, and the aftermath. In this post, I am going to offer my opinion of how this will play out. I am now quite sure that the nomination will succeed. I predict that Murkowsky will vote no, but Collins and Flake will vote yes. Since that will ensure the success of the nomination, Manchin and/or Heidkamp may then cast yes votes in an effort to help them in November. Were the nomination to fail, a clean rightwing nominee would be frog marched through the Senate and confirmed before January, regardless of whether the Republicans retain control of the Senate.
The yes vote on Kavanaugh will be a permanent stain on Collins’ legacy and the Maine voters may very possibly defeat her in 2020. Much has been made of the importance to Trump of having Kavanaugh on the court in case a subpoena or impeachment case comes before the court, but I actually doubt that is significant.
If, as I expect, Kavanaugh is confirmed, the surge in enthusiasm on the right, much commented on in recent days, will die away, but the Left will become incandescent, and that may very well determine the outcome of the November election. Kavanaugh will immediately take his seat on the High Court, but that, I am convinced, will not be the end of the matter. Between now and November, and possibly beyond, more and more people will come forward to confirm the charges against him and quite possibly to level new charges as well. This will be a continuing nightmare for the Court, and for the Republicans.
Meanwhile, in a year or two, Roe v. Wade will be overturned, and much more besides that is truly horrible will become law.