After posting my New Year’s greeting, I went looking for some hard data to supplement my observations about the race now being launched for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential nomination, and very quickly made my way to this year’s version of the Green Papers, which I used to good advantage in 2016. You can find the relevant page here.
A quick look reveals that by the time the March 3rd primary votes have been counted, slightly more than 40% of the delegates will have been chosen, which, elementary arithmetic tells me, means that 80% of the delegates needed to win will have been chosen. If I am right, three or four hopefuls will have scarfed up the lion’s share of that 80%, posing a prohibitive obstacle to anyone else gaining enough delegates to make it into the circle of genuine possibles. It is not obvious to me that this is a good thing, but the numbers do not lie.
Because of the costs of competing in Texas and California, the ability to raise big money quickly from small donors will, I think, be crucial. I assume that advantages Warren, Sanders, and O’Rourke to the detriment of Harris, but I may be wrong. Biden? I still don’t believe it, but I could be kidding myself.