tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5687347459208158501.post3344058453075867314..comments2024-03-28T01:17:42.336-04:00Comments on The Philosopher's Stone: GUEST POSTRobert Paul Wolffhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11970360952872431856noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5687347459208158501.post-16857544405268947232019-11-23T13:21:03.445-05:002019-11-23T13:21:03.445-05:00Thanks for the comments.
I believe Anonymous unde...Thanks for the comments.<br /><br />I believe Anonymous underestimates the damage that a second Trump term would cause and over-estimates the strength of the leftist women and or men. Most certainly the left does not control the courts, as LFC notes .<br /><br />I remember the Nate Silver contribution to the field of flawed analytics. It is what happens when the sports betting craze infects political analysis. Lots of my friends stopped looking at the polling data and focused on his model's prediction of the odds. The polling data was right - it was a very close race. I do not consider myself a quantitative type at all. Polling data has certain uses in campaigning, as does the analysis of past election results for targeting campaign efforts. I think of the particular data I used in the post as being fundamental indicators. The right/wrong track, party identification, and one I didn't mention- the generic ballot question - have been asked by pollsters for decades. We can then look at what happened in the past when there was similar data. The same is true for the party identification numbers.<br /><br />To steal a paradigm from Thomas Kuhn, there are periods of normal politics and revolutionary politics. Nothing is normal about 10% changes in voter registration in 2 years in gerrymandered districts, 11.5% jump in turnout over the last off-year election, or a 15.7 % increase in millennial voter turnout. In the last general election, only 15% of millennials turned out while 35.6% voted last year and I hope it goes up substantially next year. If my hunch is right, we will be entering a period of Democratic party dominance. Keep your fingers crossed.Christopher J. Mulvaney, Ph.D.https://www.blogger.com/profile/15817420454023465228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5687347459208158501.post-8433159339143095762019-11-22T20:09:29.666-05:002019-11-22T20:09:29.666-05:00I'm assuming the first comment in this thread ...I'm assuming the first comment in this thread is intended as satire (of some sort).<br /><br />Trump has filled the federal district and appellate courts with conservative judges in frightening quantities. Most of these lifetime appts have sailed through the Republican- controlled Senate w.o much publicity. Gender here is less important than ideology, as, needless to say, not all women share the sentiments of the commenter, and there are plenty of right-wing women in legislatures and on the bench. While women <i>taken in the aggregate</i> vote more Democratic than men, key decisions in legislatures and courts are made by individuals, not aggregates or averages. LFCnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5687347459208158501.post-72387227585341291842019-11-22T19:20:41.682-05:002019-11-22T19:20:41.682-05:00I no longer trust and common sense appraisals when...I no longer trust and common sense appraisals when it comes to Trump, no matter how uncommon and pedigreed. Remember the 99 % chance for a Clinton victory?<br />He is a black swan and wild cardHowiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12474061778220524205noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5687347459208158501.post-8682306492069245102019-11-22T17:05:12.127-05:002019-11-22T17:05:12.127-05:00I don't think gender politics is a winner.I don't think gender politics is a winner.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5687347459208158501.post-52953249574252602122019-11-22T12:23:44.626-05:002019-11-22T12:23:44.626-05:00It will make little difference in the long run whe...It will make little difference in the long run whether Trump wins or not in 2020. We on the Left control the future: all educational institutions and the most important bureaucracies, the courts, and the media are being staffed & directed by us, the women, who will finally have our day in the sun. The "Republicans" will have to shift to the Left or be permanently a minority. It is a question of power: and now we have enough numbers & rank even in the military to determine, with our LGBT auxiliaries, the genuine destiny of a country that soon will have "no borders". The white middle class males grasping for dear life onto the nostalgic memories of their past injustices are about to learn their proper place.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com