Several commentators have raised once again questions about
critiques of Piketty’s work, and I would like to address them, but that will
take a while since the questions are complicated, and a little later this
morning Susie and I will be going to meet a cat we are interested in adopting
[the central question is whether the foster parents approve of us as adopters],
so let me start this morning with the guilty plea of somebody named Sam
Patten. Why may it matter?
The central question of the Mueller investigation is whether
the Trump campaign, and Trump himself, conspired with the Russian government to
try to tilt the 2016 election in Trump’s favor.
This is not an investigation
of whether the activities of the Russians affected the outcome. No one can know the answer to that. However, we do know that Clinton lost for two
reasons: She was the worst candidate imaginable,
and she ran a godawful campaign. So why
do I care? Because if Trump’s complicity
can be proved, it will deal a death blow to him and also to the Republican
Party.
Mueller has now established, I believe, that the Russians
did two things to influence the campaign. First, they hacked into the email accounts of
Clinton, the DNC, and others, and leaked the hacked emails in ways designed to
hurt her chances. Second, they used
social media to target swing voters with messages ostensibly from Americans.
Most attention has focused on the first of these actions, in
part because of the public discussion of the Trump Tower meeting at which Russian
agents offered the hacked emails to Trump campaign representatives. So everyone wants to know whether it can be
proven that Trump himself had advanced knowledge of the meeting and approved
its purpose.
The second Russian effort was more complicated, for two
reasons. First, to pay for ads on social
media platforms, one must provide an authenticatable identity, and the Russians
wanted to keep their involvement secret.
Second, to be effective, such a social media campaign just have access
to a huge database of voters, identifying them by location, gender, age, race,
religion, ethnicity, income, past voting behavior, and party registration, a
database of the sort that political parties in the United States now develop
and maintain. [In my own local efforts,
I have encountered the Obama campaign program VoteBuilder, and it is
extraordinary.]
In February, Mueller indicted a host of unreachable Russians
for the social media actions, along with one American nonentity. On February 20th of this year, I
wrote a post in which I quoted this bit from a news story: “Separately, Mueller’s office announced that
Richard Pinedo, of Santa Paula, California, had pleaded guilty to identity fraud.
Pinedo, 28, admitted to running a website that offered stolen identities to
help customers get around the security measures of major online payment sites.
It was not made clear whether his service had been used by the Russian
operatives.”
Poor Mr. Pinedo, just an enterprising young man stealing
online identities, had gotten swept up in the biggest legal case of the
century. That answered the first question: How did the Russians get the false
identities? That left the second
question: Where did they get the fine-grained voter data for their efforts? Enter Cambridge Analytica, whose records
Mueller subpoenaed. Cambridge Analytica
did data work for the Trump campaign?
And who headed up the Trump campaign’s data efforts? None other than golden boy Jared Kushner,
husband of Trump’s Number One daughter and secret passion, Ivanka.
But that left one link missing in the chain from Trump to
Putin. Enter Sam Patten. Sam Patten, in addition to working for the
pro-Russian Ukraine faction, also had links to Cambridge Analytica.
Aha! If Patten, who
is now cooperating with Mueller, can connect Cambridge Analytica to Pinedo and
to Kushner, then the chain is complete.
That is why it matters that on the last day before the magic
September 1 deadline, Mueller’s grand jury handed up an indictment against
obscure Sam Patten.
Stay tuned.