Yesterday, Mitt Romney gave a courageous, honest speech in which he vigorously defended the universal health care bill that he signed in Massachusetts. He is now toast. You can take him off your list of potential Republican nominees. He obviously made a calculated decision to defend the program now, take the heat, and hope that by next Fall, no one will care. He is wrong. At every Republican debate, it will be thrown in his face. It is in the interest of every single one of his competitors never to let him forget "Romneycare," so they won't.
Where does that leave us in the speculation? Theoretically, this should help Pawlenty, Daniels, and Huntsman, the other apparently sane suits who are in the running. But I cannot see any of them doing well in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina, and by the time things roll around to Super Tuesday, where one or another of them might break out, it may be too late. It still appears questionable whether Huckabee will run.
Anybody have any usable intuitions?
5 comments:
I still think Romney will end up with the nomination (unless Daniels decides to jump in -- but he's of Syrian descent, which may get him into even more hot water with Republicans than Romney's health care bill will).
None of the other possible candidates could possibly win the 2012 election: Pawlenty's nearly a no-name, Huntsman worked for the Obama administration, and everybody else is batshit crazy. Of course, Romney probably can't beat Obama either, but he might be able to put up the appearance of a fight, and the Republican Party will figure this out.
http://race42012.com/2011/05/13/gop-big-money-going-to-romney-pawlenty-and-huntsman/
Michael, you may well be right. [I didn't know Daniels is of Syrian descent.] Pawlenty makes Bobby Jindal seem like Mr. Charisma! Huntsman wins the nomination and the election hands down so long as the vote is limited to Beltway commentators -- otherwise, I cannot see him getting any delegates at all. But I insist I am absolutely right about my fundamental premise: Someone is going to get that nomination. I mean, Obama is not going to run unopposed, right? But I'll be damned if I can figure out how any of them is going to do it.
Here's the article where I leaned about Daniels's Syrian ancestry.
http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2011/05/12/mitch_daniels_esau_arab_heritagev
Huck is out.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/15/us/politics/15huckabee.html?hp
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