TICK TOCK

Patience is one of the many virtues that I have never managed to cultivate.  If I were a farmer, I would be forever pulling up sprouts to see whether they were rooting.  But time does pass, and with the passage of time, Nate Silver's "Monte Carlo simulations" [as one commentator has taught me to call them] inexorably push Obama's election chances up.  At the moment, they stand at 80.7%, a gain of 6.2% in the past eight days.  News reports indicate that Romney campaign operatives are beginning to recognize that they are on a glide path to defeat.  I would imagine they are pinning their hopes on a combination of the vast sums their super-pacs will throw into negative ads and some sort of stunning upset victory in the presidential debates.  But the scores, if not, hundreds of millions of dollars they have spent on ads thus far have had little or no effect, and the debates are absolutely certtain to be a draw at best for Romney.

Barring a catastrophic international upheaval [the collapse of the Euro Zone, an Israeli attack on Iran] or a domestic terrorist attack, the only hope of the Romney camp is to take some big chance in a desperate effort to change the contours of the race.  But they have had their VP moment, to no noticeable positive effect, and if they send Romney out to make a violent frontal attack on Obama in the first debate, his legendary unflappability will make Romney look as cranky and strange as Clint Eastwood and the chair.

So, I repeat what I said some while ago on this blog.  Romney will not win, and Obama will be re-elected.