CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A MISSPENT OLD AGE

The various solitaire programs on my computer keep track of how I do, and this morning, as I played my four thousand two hundred and twenty-second game of old-fashioned solitaire [on this computer], I paused to look over my record.  My win percentage is 16%, or, more precisely, 16.6%, which is almost exactly one in six.   [Interesting aside:  A while back I decided to start using the un-do facility to see whether I could up my win percentage.  Contrary to expectations, it has had no effect at all on the number of games I win.  Odd.]

My longest win streak is five.  Simple math tells me that I have a 1 in 7776 chanced of winning five games in a row, assuming that I always play with the same degree of skill and that the computer is not deliberately feeding me easy or hard games.  Since I have played 4,222 games in all, there have been 4,218 five-game runs, so one run of five wins is not out of line with expectations.  My longest loss streak during the same period of time is 54.  [I should report that as the losses piled up, I became morbidly curious just how long I would go without a win.]  Slightly more tedious math tells me that there is a 6.6 in 10,000 chance of a run of fifty-four losses, making the same assumptions.  This is a chance of roughly 1 in 1515.   Now, there are 4,168 fifty-four game runs in the 4,222 games I have played, so one run of fifty-four losses is well within the expectable.  [My gut tells me there is something wrong with this reasoning.  I was never any good at probabilities.  Do I have this right?]