INTO THE WEEDS

Derek's comment is quite correct.  I would simply add a supplementary line of analysis [I trust everyone understands that since my heart and head are with Bernie, an argument designed to show that Clinton is going to win the nomination is not exactly parti pris.] 

At the Democratic National Convention in 2015, there will be 4483 delegate votes, which means that a candidate must get 2242 votes to be nominated.  Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina, the first four states to choose delegates, actually have among them only a tiny fraction of the 4483.  Bernie may in fact do well in at least three of those four states, and if he does, there will be a deafening roar from the Commentariat, but unless he can secure a significant share of the African-American and Hispanic vote in subsequent primaries and caucuses, he has no chance at all of coming close to 2242.  He may bring out new voters -- that is always the hope of insurgent candidates -- but in this election cycle, his support is coming very heavily from segments of the Democratic Party base that would be likely to come out to vote anyway. 

Clinton lost the nomination in 2008 because Obama understood these elementary facts and she and her campaign did not.  Say what you will about her, she does seem to have learned this lesson.  I see no chance that Bernie can pull on her the sort of sneak attack that gave Obama the nomination.

Whom will the Republicans nominate?  I am beginning to feel about that the way I am beginning to feel about the Speakership of the House of Representatives, namely that they will nominate no one.  But of course, I jest. 

Will it be Trump?  Be still, my heart.  I cannot believe the Republicans would be that stupid.  But I am having trouble figuring out who will be the last man standing to take out Trump [I say "man" because, as anticipated, Fiorina is fading badly after her fifteen minutes of fame.]  Will it be Rubio, now that he has become Sheldon Adelson's pet poodle?  Perhaps, perhaps. 

Bernie has been right from the start.  What is needed is not a candidate but a movement, and Bernie may be creating a movement even as he fails to win the nomination.  Could things take a turn for the better before I kick off on my hundredth birthday?  One can only hope and pray and work for that happy moment.