GETTING READY FOR DATA

On December 20th, I posted my calculations of probable Trump delegate counts state by state, assuming a certain pattern of the vote.  Now that actual primary/caucus season is upon us, I plan to re-post an updated and corrected spreadsheet [with assistance from my son Patrick] each time another primary or caucus is held, comparing the actual results with my estimates.

Just to remind you, my basic assumption [NOT A PREDICTION!] is that Trump pulls 35-40% of the vote consistently, with Cruz and Rubio between them taking another 45-55% and the remaining votes going to various other candidates.

Recall that a candidate needs 1273 delegates to secure the nomination, and that I am assuming Trump will get the endorsement of virtually none of the unelected super-delegates.

Here is the spreadsheet I shall be filling in state by state:

State	Pledged Delegates	Likely Trump	Actual Trump
New Hampshire	20	7
South Carolina	50	41
Alabama	47	32
Arkansas	37	14
Georgia	76	40
Massachusetts	39	14
Okalahoma	40	20
Tennessee	55	28
Texas	152	86
Vermont	16	6
Virginia	46	17
Louisiana	44	16
Idaho	29	10
Mississippi	37	14
Michigan	56	21
Puero Rico	20	7
Ohio	63	63
Florida	99	99
Illinois	66	25
Missouri	49	34
North Carolina	72	25
Arizona	58	58
Wisconsin	42	30
New York	92	52
Connecticut	25	14
Delaware	16	16
Maryland	38	29
Pennsylvania	68	14
Rhode Island	16	6
Indiana	54	45
West Virginia	31	18
Oregon	25	9
California	169	145
Montana	24	24
New Jersey	48	48
New Mexico	21	8
South Dakota	26	26
Nebraska	33	33
Washington	41	14
	1940	1208
Caucus States
Iowa	30
Nevada	30
Alaska	25
Colorado	34
Minnesota	35
North Dakota	25
Wyoming	26
Kansas	40
Kentucky	42
Maine	20
Hawaii	16
District of Columbia	19
Northern Mariana Islands	6
Virgin Islands	6
Utah	40
	394
Territorial Convention
Guam	6
American Samoa	6
	12
	Trump Total		0
	Needed to Win		1273