"What about the
following scenario, Dr. Wolff. Say Trump gets a wide majority of the delegates
but not enough to pass the threshold number to secure the nomination. After
some backroom dealing, the Republicans figure out a way to nominate Cruz, Rubio
or Kasich instead. Disaffected, Trump decides to run as an independent.
Meanwhile, Bernie loses to Hillary. Do you think Bernie would run as an
independent against Hillary, if Trump runs as an independent?"
A word of caution about this
sort of speculation. A number of states
have "sore loser" ballot provisions, which forbid someone from
running on a third line if he or she has appeared on one of the two main lines
[Democratic or Republican] in the primary.
It would be very difficult for Trump or Sanders to make a third/fourth party
run.
However, if the party big
wigs deny Trump the nomination at the
Convention, I think he would probably walk out and call on all of his delegates
to do likewise. It would be real chaos.
I think they are stuck. If Trump comes to the Convention with, let us
say, 1100 delegates, and no one else has more than 600 or 700, it is just not
realistic to think they can snatch the nomination from him.
I think the most likely
scenario, if Trump doesn't make it to 1237, is that before the Convention he cuts
a deal with one of the other candidates to trade the VP slot for his delegates.
Professor Wolff,
ReplyDeleteYour comments are well taken. But I don't think it answers the question. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Trump does run as a third party. In that case, 1) should Bernie run as a fourth party candidate? And if so, 2) would he run? I am pretty confident that he would not run. But I am not completely convinced that it would be a bad idea for him to do so.
Dante, If no one gets a majority in the electoral college, the vote goes to the House of Representatives, currently in the hands of the Republicans, voting state by state, and so Sanders, as a 4th party candidate, would have no chances of being elected president, even if he got more electoral votes than anyone else. I assume that even if the Republicans do not dominate the House elected this year, supporters of Sanders will not.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/procedural_guide.html
In addition, Sanders, if I read him right, would support Clinton against Trump and against any Republican, out of basic anti-fascist instinct, which most leftists of our age (I'm almost as old as Sanders) have.
Thanks for addressing my comment, Dr. Wolff. I knew my speculation was fantastical; it's just upsetting to think that there are almost no scenarios in which Sanders really has a chance. Do you think things change if the country goes into recession? It seems that that would help Trump's chances against Hillary.
ReplyDeleteSorry for the cryptic account name... I think I made it when I was about 16.
- Doug, a PhD student in philosophy