DELEGATE UPDATE

I have now updated my spreadsheet.  At this point, despite the loss of Ohio and the underperformance in Texas, but because of caucus state delegates, which were not part of my original estimate, Trump is 59 delegates ahead of my estimate, thus putting him, I believe, on a path to more than 1237 on the first ballot.

I genuinely believe that  Trump is a proto-fascist , extremely dangerous, but fortunately very vulnerable to the right sorts of attacks.  No one will listen to the likes of me, of course, but I think I could be very useful to the Clinton campaign if they would ask.  It goes without saying that my dismay at Clinton is as nothing compared to my fear of Trump.

Here is the updated spreadsheet.

State	Delegates	Likely Trump	Actual Trump	Trump Vote %	Cumulative Difference
New Hampshire	20	7	11	35	plus 4
South Carolina	50	36	50	32.5	plus 18
Alabama	47	32	36	43	plus 22
Arkansas	37	14	16	33	plus 24
Georgia	76	40	40	39	plus 24
Massachusetts	39	14	22	49	plus 32
Okalahoma	40	20	13	28	plus 25
Tennessee	55	28	33	34	plus 30
Texas	152	86	48	27	minus 8
Vermont	16	6	8	35	minus 6
Virginia	46	17	17	33	minus 6
Louisiana	44	16	18		minus4
Idaho	29	10	12	28	minus2
Mississippi	37	14	24	47	plus 9
Michigan	56	21	25	37	plus 13
Puerto Rico	20	7	0		plus 6
Ohio	63	63	0		minus 57
Florida	99	99	99		minus 57
Illinois	66	25	51		minus 31
Missouri	49	34	25		minus 40
North Carolina	72	25	29		minus 36
Arizona	58	58
Wisconsin	42	30
New York	92	52
Connecticut	25	14
Delaware	16	16
Maryland	38	29
Pennsylvania	68	14
Rhode Island	16	6
Indiana	54	45
West Virginia	31	18
Oregon	25	9
California	169	145
Montana	24	24
New Jersey	48	48
New Mexico	21	8
South Dakota	26	26
Nebraska	33	33
Washington	41	14
	1940	1203
Caucus States
Iowa	30		7
Nevada	30		14
Alaska	25		11
Colorado	34
Minnesota	35		8
North Dakota	25
Wyoming	26
Kansas	40		9
Kentucky	43		17
Maine	23		9
Hawaii	16		11
District of Columbia	19
Northern Mariana Islands	6		9
Virgin Islands	6
Utah	40
	398
Territorial Convention
Guam	6
American Samoa	6
	12