Bernie narrowly won Michigan, a huge victory that changes nothing. Clinton will win the nomination easily,
UNLESS: Suppose that in May, Trump is clearly unstoppable and the head-to-head polls begin to show that Clinton is in danger of losing the general election to Trump whereas Bernie crushes Trump. At that point, it is just barely conceivable that the Democratic super delegates will have second thoughts and consider switching to Bernie.
Just sayin'.
| State | Delegates | Likely Trump | Actual Trump | Trump Vote % | Cumulative Difference |
| New Hampshire | 20 | 7 | 11 | 35 | plus 4 |
| South Carolina | 50 | 36 | 50 | 32.5 | plus 18 |
| Alabama | 47 | 32 | 36 | 43 | plus 22 |
| Arkansas | 37 | 14 | 16 | 33 | plus 24 |
| Georgia | 76 | 40 | 40 | 39 | plus 24 |
| Massachusetts | 39 | 14 | 22 | 49 | plus 32 |
| Okalahoma | 40 | 20 | 13 | 28 | plus 25 |
| Tennessee | 55 | 28 | 31 | 34 | plus 28 |
| Texas | 152 | 86 | 47 | 27 | minus 11 |
| Vermont | 16 | 6 | 6 | 35 | minus 11 |
| Virginia | 46 | 17 | 17 | 33 | minus 11 |
| Louisiana | 44 | 16 | 18 | minus 9 | |
| Idaho | 29 | 10 | 10 | minus 9 | |
| Mississippi | 37 | 14 | 24 | plus 1 | |
| Michigan | 56 | 21 | 25 | plus 5 | |
| Puero Rico | 20 | 7 | |||
| Ohio | 63 | 63 | |||
| Florida | 99 | 99 | |||
| Illinois | 66 | 25 | |||
| Missouri | 49 | 34 | |||
| North Carolina | 72 | 25 | |||
| Arizona | 58 | 58 | |||
| Wisconsin | 42 | 30 | |||
| New York | 92 | 52 | |||
| Connecticut | 25 | 14 | |||
| Delaware | 16 | 16 | |||
| Maryland | 38 | 29 | |||
| Pennsylvania | 68 | 14 | |||
| Rhode Island | 16 | 6 | |||
| Indiana | 54 | 45 | |||
| West Virginia | 31 | 18 | |||
| Oregon | 25 | 9 | |||
| California | 169 | 145 | |||
| Montana | 24 | 24 | |||
| New Jersey | 48 | 48 | |||
| New Mexico | 21 | 8 | |||
| South Dakota | 26 | 26 | |||
| Nebraska | 33 | 33 | |||
| Washington | 41 | 14 | |||
| 1940 | 1203 | ||||
| Caucus States | |||||
| Iowa | 30 | 7 | |||
| Nevada | 30 | 14 | |||
| Alaska | 25 | 11 | |||
| Colorado | 34 | ||||
| Minnesota | 35 | 10 | |||
| North Dakota | 25 | ||||
| Wyoming | 26 | ||||
| Kansas | 40 | 9 | |||
| Kentucky | 43 | 16 | |||
| Maine | 23 | 9 | |||
| Hawaii | 16 | ||||
| District of Columbia | 19 | ||||
| Northern Mariana Islands | 6 | ||||
| Virgin Islands | 6 | ||||
| Utah | 40 | ||||
| 398 | |||||
| Territorial Convention | |||||
| Guam | 6 | ||||
| American Samoa | 6 | ||||
| 12 | |||||
| Trump Total | 442 | plus 81 | |||
| Needed to Win | 1237 | ||||
Well his win in Michigan (like his huge win in Nebraska and Maine) could mean the future delegate counts you have, based off of similar polling, are incorrect. No?
ReplyDeleteWhat about the following scenario, Dr. Wolff. Say Trump gets a wide majority of the delegates but not enough to pass the threshold number to secure the nomination. After some backroom dealing, the Republicans figure out a way to nominate Cruz, Rubio or Kasich instead. Disaffected, Trump decides to run as an independent. Meanwhile, Bernie loses to Hillary. Do you think Bernie would run as an independent against Hillary, if Trump runs as an independent?
ReplyDeleteChris, as I have indicated, I think I underestimated the number of delegates Trump will get. That is why I am still pretty sure that he will win the nomination.
ReplyDeleteI was talking about Bernie! :)
ReplyDelete