I have more or less stopped keeping close tabs on Trump's delegate count in relation to my original estimates, but it is a slow Saturday, so I thought I would check. As near as I can tell, Trump is now roughly 40 delegates ahead of my original estimates, which would put him just over the 1237 mark at the end of the process. He has made a number of unforced errors, and has been revealed to be woefully incompetent at the business of rounding up strays, compared to Cruz, but even so, he seems to me to be the odds on favorite to get the nomination.
Since Clinton is proving to be an awful candidate, we can only hope that Trump is her opponent, because she will crush him, however well or badly she would do against any of the other Republicans.
Meanwhile, Bernie is off to the Vatican. And they said he wasn't really a politician!
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In a four-way race in Michigan, Trump got more votes than either Clinton or Sanders got in a two-way race. And throughout the rust-belt, Trump's anti-free-trade message has great appeal. Then there is the fact that 33% of Sanders voters say they will not vote for her in the General. Then there is Bill's recent work on the African-American vote. In the end, Clinton's base will be unenthusiastic, and she will be vulnerable in some important battleground states. So there will be no Clinton crushing of Trump. Mark my words.
Have to say, I agree with Simon. Hillary is effectively demobilizing her party at the same time that Trump is rallying Republicans, and many independents. I'd go even further and say if it's Clinton/Trump general, a Trump win is most likely scenario.
To Simon and Steve:
Based on my 35-odd years of observing American politics, I just don't see it. The national voting landscape has changed so drastically. On a national level, how can Trump pull the Latino or African American vote? Or, more broadly speaking, just the sane American citizen vote? Recall the Obama/Romney campaign of 2012. Paul Ryan blamed the loss on the "urban vote." That is to say, he believed that it was the groundswell of African Americans that were motivated to vote for Obama that resulted in his victory. I believe that Ryan was both right and wrong. It was not simply African Americans that produced Obama's victory, but the consistently growing percentage of younger white liberals who are indeed populating urban areas. Non-urban areas, while undoubtedly conservative, lack the liberal density of most American urban areas. From my urban experience, so many mainstream, white, middle class and upper class individuals dislike Trump that I can't see him taking general urban population votes. Which actually seems to count for quite a lot these days.
-- Jim
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