It is a quiet Saturday morning in this Continuing Care Retirement
Community, or old people’s home, as I think of it, and a good time to respond
to some recent comments. First, I note
with manifest pleasure Jerry Brown’s Trumpesque expression of the blessedness
of reading my blog. All groveling
gratefully accepted. [For those
incapable of detecting irony in the absence of emoticons, this was not meant
seriously.]
But on to more serious matters. Anonymous writes as follows: “I have some disagreements with your view on
Trump and Russia that I was wondering if you could address. As you have
discussed on here before, Chomsky has argued that the one decent policy to come
out of the Trump administration (or sentiment) is Trump's desire to have better
relations with Russia. He believes this because, even if Trump's campaign coordinated
with the Russians in the 2016 election, such a relationship could avert a
nuclear war between the two powers.
My concern with your view is this: even if we assume that Trump himself
colluded with the Russian government in 2016 to win the Presidency, and even if
Trump himself is under the control of Putin (a worst-case scenario), would this
treasonous act not still be somewhat desired so as to avoid the very real
threat of a US-Russia war which would result in nuclear catastrophe? Yes,
treason is something to be taken seriously even in the formal democracy of the
United States, but if this treason resulted in us avoiding a nuclear
catastrophe, shouldn't we be at least hesitant to want Trump impeached
(assuming that other figures/administrations would simply take the traditional,
hostile stance towards Russia)?”
This is a very interesting and rather complex comment and
question. I shall try to address it as
clearly as I can. But I should say at the outset that I am hindered by an
inability to make really plausible estimates of the probabilities of the
various dangers Anonymous refers to. I
cannot speak for Noam, of course, but I am somewhat doubtful that he can do
much better in that regard, even though he is more knowledgeable than I.
First of all, if it
is true that we now face a very serious threat of an American/Russian nuclear
war, and if it is also true that
Trump’s stance with regard to Russia materially reduces that threat, then there is a good argument for
embracing Trumps’ Russia policy, such as it may be, as a very necessary
evil. A nuclear war would be so terrible
that even if the price of avoiding it were the end of the American political
system as we know it, or even the end of America’s independence as a nation, that
would perhaps be a price worth paying. I
am not sure everyone these days understands just how civilization-endingly
terrible a nuclear war would be.
Chomsky, of course, does.
My problem with Chomsky’s point of view, and hence with
Anonymous’ question, is that I have serious doubts about the first of the
premises and grave doubts, bordering on disbelief, about the second. Let me take them in turn.
Ever since nuclear weapons were invented, there has been a
great risk of accidental or unintended nuclear war and some risk, less I think,
that a nuclear armed nation will deliberately initiate a nuclear war. Short of the nuclear disarmament for which I
argued and worked sixty years ago, preventing accidental or unintended nuclear
war requires three things: First, that
the weapons systems be stable and well-protected [in hardened silos or on
nuclear submarines] so that snap decisions do not have to be made about
potential threats under conditions in which mistakes are easily possible; Second, that each adversary possesses
sufficient nuclear weapons to respond with unacceptable force [unacceptable to
the opponent] to even a nation-destroying first strike; and third, that both adversaries [or all, if
there are more than two] make their aims and actions unambiguously clear, so
that miscalculations, misunderstandings, and battlefield confusion are reduced
to an absolute minimum. These conditions
have for the most part been met during the past half century in confrontations
between The Soviet Union [afterwards Russia] and America, although there have
been several terrifyingly close calls, most notably the so-called Cuban Missile
Crisis [in which John F. Kennedy was the principal source of the danger, in my judgment.] They are, I believe, met today, despite such
provocative actions as the placement of weaponry in Eastern Europe by the United
States and the annexation of Crimea and attempted annexation of Ukraine by
Russia. [I am not really interested in,
and will not discuss, whether any of these actions was, in any sense, “justified.”] In the absence of irrational or unpredictable
actions on the part of the Americans or Russians, I do not think that the
danger of nuclear war is greater now than it was five, ten, or fifteen years
ago. [I leave entirely to one side the confrontation
between India and Pakistan in Kashmir, which has its own terrors and dangers].
Do I know these judgment to be true? Good God, no.
How could I? It is my best guess,
and if Chomsky says that I am wrong, well, he may be right, but then again I
may be right.
It is the second premise whose dubiousness really seems
manifest to me. Trump clearly has no
idea at all what he is doing, either in domestic or in international affairs. He has nothing remotely akin to a coherent
policy, strategy, or point of view regarding Russia, and I see no sign that he
will acquire one. Of one thing I am
certain: characterizing the question as
one of “having better relation with Russia” is entirely the wrong way to think
about these matters. International
Relations is not relationship counseling.
Avoiding a nuclear war calls not for two men to like one another, or for
them to get along, or for them to have “better relations,” and as for the
relationship between two countries, all such language drawn from popular talk
about interpersonal relationships is utterly irrelevant. Avoiding a nuclear war between two nations
neither of which seeks to have a nuclear war requires clarity, predictability, successful
and reliable channels of communication, and rationality.
Putin is, in my utterly amateurish judgment, quite capable
of behaving with self-interested rationality on the basis of clear,
predictable, reliable channels of communication. Trump is not, and in my guesstimate is just
as likely to react irrationally toward Putin when they are BFFs as when they
are sworn enemies.
For what it is worth, I judge that Pence would be more predictable, albeit equally despicable.
For these reasons, I am dubious about Chomsky’s expressed
view concerning the relationship between Trump’s America and Putin’s Russia.