Chris asked me to elaborate on point 4. I assume he refers to this:
4. Sanders, I am afraid, won’t make it. His best shot was as the bearer of all the hopes of young progressives, but his success has been his undoing, for too many other candidates now espouse the policies he reintroduced into Democratic politics after their half century long disappearance.
Remember, I am not offering a judgment of which candidate should make it, just a guess about which one will. At the moment there are three or four or five candidates who seem to have some chance, and a horde who do not. In a situation like this, it matters a lot who is voters’ second choice. When the hordes disappear, they will free up maybe 20% of the polling, and where it will go will do much to shape the race. I have a feeling Biden is nobody’s second choice, and as he continues to sink in the polls, as I think he will, he will not pick up the bits and pieces of votes now going to the non-starters. I would guess Bernie is the second choice of many Warren voters, and she is the second choice of many of his, but neither of them will drop out. If it were Bernie against Biden [as it was Bernie against Clinton in 2016] I would bet on Bernie, but it isn’t, and so I suspect he has hit his ceiling and won’t make it.
By the way, I do not think he is a terribly good candidate, which doesn’t help.