FOR THE FIRST TIME
I think it is genuinely possible that Trump will not serve out his entire first term. He will not be convicted in the Senate [impeachment is now certain], but at some point he may resign, if he can secure the assurance of a plenary pardon from President Pence.]
I agree.
ReplyDeleteOf course if Pence promises Trump a pardon he may not keep his word. Also Trump may still be on the hook for state crimes (as opposed to federal ones). But on reflection Pence is far too deep in Trump's doodoo to want any kind of an investigation that may wind up incriminating him. So I think a plenary pardon can be expected. Trump will just have to hope that New York prosecutors will let him alone.
ReplyDeleteThis scenario was advanced by Elizabeth Drew back on December 28, 2018 in the NYT. Her opinion piece was prescient and is well worth reading. Here's the relevant quote:
ReplyDelete"But it may well not come to a vote in the Senate. Facing an assortment of unpalatable possibilities, including being indicted after he leaves office, Mr. Trump will be looking for a way out. It’s to be recalled that Mr. Nixon resigned without having been impeached or convicted. The House was clearly going to approve articles of impeachment against him, and he’d been warned by senior Republicans that his support in the Senate had collapsed. Mr. Trump could well exhibit a similar instinct for self-preservation. But like Mr. Nixon, Mr. Trump will want future legal protection.
"Mr. Nixon was pardoned by President Gerald Ford, and despite suspicions, no evidence has ever surfaced that the fix was in. While Mr. Trump’s case is more complex than Mr. Nixon’s, the evident dangers of keeping an out-of-control president in office might well impel politicians in both parties, not without controversy, to want to make a deal to get him out of there."