I have been absent from this site for several days not only
because of the effects of my weekly trip to New York but also because I have
been transfixed by the rapid development of the impeachment process. Tuesday evening, as I sat slumped in my seat
at LaGuardia waiting for my flight, I saw on a TV screen the announcement that
the State Department Inspector General had just delivered a cache of new materials
to a Congressional committee. Because my
phone was about to die, I was forced to try to lip read the announcement by the
CNN talking head. What will happen
next? Lord knows. Probably while I type these words with my two
forefingers new revelations are being announced on the TV in the kitchen. But the outcome is now certain.
Trump will be impeached by the House, probably before
Thanksgiving and probably as well with virtually no Republican votes. Then Mitch McConnell will take the Senate at
breakneck speed through the Senate trial mandated in the Constitution. I visualize the Senate trial as rather like a
lovely scene from the old Danny Kaye movie, The
Court Jester. [I can still recall
the famous phrase, “The chalice from the palace has the potion with the poison
but the flagon with the dragon has the brew that is true.”] At one point Kaye, the Court Jester, is
challenged by a knight but he cannot fight because he is not a knight, so he is
frog marched double time through the ordinarily leisurely knighting process in
order to be eligible to take part in a duel.
Trump will be acquitted by the Senate. That is a foregone conclusion. The four or five Republican Senators up for
election will have to make an impossible choice. I suspect that whichever way they choose they
will suffer in November 2020.
And then, everything will depend on the relative degree of
eagerness to vote of the Democratic and Republican bases. Right now, it looks good.
One final word, about Bernie. I hope to God he is all right in the
aftermath of his arterial procedure. He
and his wife will have to decide whether he can return to the crushing schedule
and unreal effort of a full speed presidential campaign.
I am very encouraged by how flustered Trump is. Trump is harried and flustered.
ReplyDeleteWithout going into group psychology theory, he no longer is the emotional leader- he is a victim, fighting for his career and political life. Many might still identify with him, but can they square his blithering new persona with being a winner?
The democrats look like they're in control now.
They ought to keep it up, and parley it into a permanent sty in Trump's eye.
There must be some slogan to make it stick
Gazing into my crystal ball:
ReplyDeleteThere are so many crimes piling up on Trump that as with Agnew,
prosecutors will make a deal, resign now and you can live the rest
of your life being The Donald and never see the inside of a jail.
But first they will remove Pence, also criminally libel. The Republicans
will then move Nikki Haley into the VP slot. She will become a formidable
candidate against anyone except Bernie or Warren.
From your mouth to God's ear, Jerry.
ReplyDeleteI see that Romney has just made some very harsh statements about Trump, so that's one Republican Senate vote that Trump will most probably not have. The rats desert a sinking ship, and if the ship of Trump begins to go down, more Republican senators may follow Romney.
ReplyDeleteIn that case, the scenario that Jerry Fresia outlines above may well turn out to be the case.
It's interesting to watch Donald Trump come more unglued with each passing day. If it weren't for the possibility that his growing madness increases the odds of him doing even more damage to this country or taking military action somewhere in the world, I would embrace with delight the spectacle of his lunatic unraveling in public as the most propitious sign that he won't make it to the end of his current presidency.
ReplyDeleteI hope S. Wallerstein is right, but I don’t see it yet. Romney is a special case. He’s Romney; he’s from Utah; he is not up for reelection until 2024. So far the others are paralyzed. Susan Collins, as usual, is trying to have it both ways, but in the end she’ll go with McConnell.
ReplyDeleteYesterday I saw a poll report that Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 43% to 41% in the past two weeks. The commentator saw that as a good sign. I was appalled. Forty-one percent of Americans think Trump is doing a good job!
How in hell can you have a working, functional democracy with an electorate like that?
As a rule of thumb, if something is so illogical, indecent, and palpably absurd that no minimally rational person could possibly believe it, then up to about 40% of Americans believe it. I wish I weren't being as serious as I am when I say that.
ReplyDeleteLove to read, not post, but two things:
ReplyDelete1. Nikki Haley is 2024 material; she won't touch 2020. Too radioactive.
2. For those who can, read George Conway's article In The Atlantic Monthly.
As I commented on Rod Dreher's blog: Rod, you wrote, "He couldn't help himself. Because he's Donald Trump[.]" Think about that for a moment. If that's true - if Trump really, truly can't help himself - how does that make Trump anything but unfit for office?!
DeleteI found Conway's piece to be a most delightful read.
I agree with Michael @5:17 PM. Put another way, there are some issues (abortion comes to mind) about which reasonable minds cannot disagree. I'll duck out immediately after saying this, but I don't think Trump's approval rating exactly fits this category. The man is an easy person to despise. The President is...interesting. And the man manages to do everything in his power to obscure the ways in which his office is...interesting.
ReplyDeleteRegarding T***p's "approval" ratings, Professor Wolff pointed out some time ago that these perecentages have been remarkably stable. Nothing much he seems to do raises them or lowers them very much. Guess we'll have to see what that means in terms of the impeachment inquiries.
ReplyDelete