Now that Bernie has crept into a win in New Hampshire by the
sneaky, underhanded trick of getting more votes than his opponents, and Biden
is, as I expected, toast [except that I like toast!] and Bloomberg’s
hideousness is being generously overlooked by the hysterical Democratic
Establishment, I think it is time to ask three questions to which inquiring minds
desire answers.
1. Can Bernie get the
nomination? Well, Nate Silver gives him
a 44% chance [Lord knows how], and the second best are Biden and no one, so I
guess it is not beyond imagining. We
will have a much better idea very soon.
2. If Bernie gets the
nomination, will he win the election?
The Conventional Wisdom is that he will not, but I tend to think he
will. The latest poll putting all the
remaining serious candidates up against Trump has them all winning. Much more significant, in my view, is that in
each of the match-ups, Trump gets the same 43%, which suggests that the
election is baked in. Bernie, I am
convinced, will do well in the Rust Belt, and that, by itself, should be
enough. Rachel Bitcofer has been predicting
a Dem win for six months.
3. If Bernie wins the
election, what sort of president will he be?
That is a complex question. Let
us make the cheerful assumption that he comes to office with both Houses of
Congress in Democratic hands. He will
not be able to get truly radical legislation enacted. I take it that is obvious. He will, viewed purely from the standpoint of
efficient administration, be something of a disheveled disaster. But he will be a transformative figure, in a
way that the sainted Obama was not, and if – this is the biggest unknown of all
– if he continues to build a movement on the ground throughout the country after
he is elected [as Obama, mysteriously, did not], he could genuinely change
American politics for the better.
All of which is obvious, and will inspire the Establishment
to heroic efforts to block him.
Question: Will
President Bloomberg release his tax returns?
Dream on, Professor. And, while you're at it, feed some more false hope to your America-hating fans. Establishment Dems will block Bernie the Red's nomination. A stealth-socialist, like Klobuchar, will then face President Trump; with the Man from Moscow's supporters either voting for him 3rd party, should he pull a Ross Perot, or sulk. Either way, by the grace of God, the left's own infighting costs them the election. I live in the so-called Rust Belt; trust me, the decent folks around here, from ALL walks of life, will be voting their much fatter, much more secure pocket-books come November. The Trump effect is simply stunning in these environs. As for your polls, who exactly is being surveyed to predict a Dem victory, if, by your own admission, the 'conventional wisdom' favors President Trump? Bit of a contradiction there.
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DeletePeople who follow Professor Wolff's blog (I doubt that many of us are actually fans in the sense that I'm a Bob Dylan or a Jarvis Cocker fan) aren't "America-hating". Bernie Sanders is as American as Trump is. A gay discotheque in San Francisco is as American as your corner bar is. Angela Davis is as American as Sarah Palin is. Saying that some U.S. citizens are less American than others harks back to HUAC and the worst aspects of McCarthyism.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, Moscow is far from red these days, and if Mr. Putin is supporting anyone in this election it's probably Trump, not Sanders.
(Retrying because my first comment was eaten.)
ReplyDeleteI think everyone's uncertain and nervous. From what I've read (e.g. on a Politico story I'm too lazy to track down), even some big players on Team Trump are somewhat apprehensive about Bernie. After all, in 2016, much of the "conventional wisdom" regarding electability became suspect - and not just because Trump won despite nearly everyone's prediction; another shock, I thought, was that an aging, self-described socialist could really compete in the race. I also find it mildly shocking that he's in front despite his heart attack.
Things are up in the air. A lot of the confident gloating you see is probably just to mask people's insecurity. (And it should retrospectively enhance the schadenfreude, if we're fortunate enough to enjoy a Bernie victory.)
I don't understand why Sanders winning the nomination is only maybe "not beyond imagining." He does have a challenge others don't: the open and well moneyed hostility of the DNC and the media.
ReplyDeleteBut by every other measure he is extremely well situated:
1. He has won 2 out of 2 opening state by a total of 10,000 votes.
2. Biden and Warren are in drastic decline.
3. Amy and Pete have very little support from POC, while Bloomberg has a Trump-worthy record on race and gender and represents everything Democrats have been rejecting since Obama in 2008 and especially in 2016.
4. He has an enormous amount of money that continues to regenerate.
5. He has the broadest geographical base from every region: urban and rural, red and blue states, white and non-white, coasts and center.
6. He has the most diverse coalition of people of color and women of any candidate.
7. He is crushing it with the Latino vote (48% vs Bloomberg 17% and Biden 13%).
8. He is rapidly gaining with Black voters (Biden 34%, Sanders 30%, Bloomberg 19%).
9. His core issues, Medicare and progressive taxation, have been overwhelmingly popular with the party for years, polling with overwhelming support for years and in both recent primaries.
10. He is the front runner, near front runner, or competitive second in every single major poll in every single state.
11. He has a 10% lead nationally (29% to Biden 19, Bloomberg 18).
12. He has been winning every poll against Trump for literally 3 years running.
There is no candidate who is equally well situated in all of these measures, not even in many of them. The glut of candidates and stubborness of their supporters could force a brokered convention, but apart from that there's no reason to see anyone else as having an equally good chance, much less a better one.
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