With this post, I should like to launch a discussion of the
way forward after the forthcoming election. For purposes of the discussion, I’m
going to assume that the Democrats sweep the election, taking the White House,
the Senate, and the House of Representatives. I actually think that is a
reasonable prognosis but I do not intend to argue it here. Rather I shall posit
it as the premise of the discussion. Somewhat more particularly, I shall assume
that under pressure from his colleagues and from the people, Chuck Schumer will
agree finally to abrogate the notional filibuster so that a majority of
Democratic senators can enact the will of the people.
The United States will face four crises on January 20 of
next year. The most immediate crisis, of course, will be that posed by the
virus and I am simply going to assume that Joe Biden and the Democrats will
handle it in such a manner that, once a vaccine is established, this threat
will dwindle or disappear. The second crisis will be restarting the economy and
here, unfortunately, we cannot assume that the Biden administration will make
wise and progressive decisions. Left to its own devices, it will do quite the
opposite. In the words of John Kenneth Galbraith, Biden will be inclined to
comfort the comfortable and afflict the afflicted. The third crisis, unfolding
over a longer period of time, will be an exacerbation of the long developing and
ever deepening economic inequality that afflicts not only the United States but
in one way or another the entire developed world. And finally, there will
always be, of course, the threat posed by global warming that requires
immediate action by the United States and by the rest of the world.
I see two ways that the future may unfold after the
election. The more probable, unfortunately, is that the United States will
emerge from the economic depression more unequal, more in thrall to the wealthy
and powerful, with an ever larger proportion of the population consigned to
poverty and perpetual economic uncertainty. But it is at least possible that
this could be one of those rare moments when scores of millions of people join
hands to create a better world. What will this require and what ought we to do
now to prepare?
That is the question I propose for discussion on this blog.
Lord knows, I do not have answers. I have convictions, I have a vision of the
world I want to see us create from this shambles, and I am willing to do my
small part to act on those convictions and in support of that vision.
Of one thing I am certain: change will come from below, not
from above. It will be organic, not administrative. It will require the active
participation of tens of millions of men and women, but I think this is one of
those moments when the millions required may be fired up and ready to act.
So, what do you think is called for and how do you think we
should act? I look forward to your answers.
I hope your assumptions turn out to be the case. After 2016, I take nothing for granted. A major concern I have is voter repression. I assume the Democrats are already onto the problem and have legal teams preparing to deal with it in every state. More accurately, I hope the Democrats are doing so.
ReplyDeleteIf there is a blue wave, I’m more optimistic about Biden than you seem to be. First, he is a centrist Democrat, and the center has moved decidedly to the left of where it was four years ago. Second, this would be a chance for Biden to do something significant for the country, something worthy of another centrist Democrat, Franklin Roosevelt. If elected, Biden is likely to be a one-term president. I believe he wants to be more than a not-Trumps one term caretaker. He will want someone to put up a statue of him in place of some Confederate general. My guess is that it will be in health care or the tax code, or both.
Biden could be pushed either way, to the left by a movement from below, as you note or to the right by the need to compete economically and militarily with China. An empire in decline is unpredictable. FDR headed an empire on the way up, while Biden will head one on the way down.
ReplyDeleteWhat is heartening and has come from below is the new anti-racist consciousness, which seems to have become mainstream. It appears to have reached the tipping point and there will be no going backwards. Children in the future will grow up with a new vision of racial equality and anti-racism, and it will simply become bad taste to have racist attitudes among educated people. Racism will remain of course among many uneducated whites, but it seems that anti-racism has taken a huge step forward, perhaps comparable to the step forward taken in the 60's.
Trump's rollbacks of environmental regulation will need to be reversed, either by executive order or legislative action or a combination of the two. The tax cuts for the v. top tier should be repealed. The federal lawsuit seeking to invalidate the ACA (Obamacare) will of course be dropped.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, some of what Trump and McConnell have done, such as putting many (I'm pretty sure it's hundreds) of conservative judges on the federal bench, is not reversible.
Those are immediate steps. The positive program will take longer to emerge but Biden should get Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown, Sanders, Booker, and some other legislators with policy chops into an advisory group of sorts and get cracking on a legislative program that responds to the "from below" movements but also adds good ideas "from above".
ReplyDeleteJacobin magazine just put out an article exploring an aspect of this question, focusing on the public option. Whether or not it passes, they say, will be the major indicator of whether the U.S. has slid into a full-on plutocracy.
ReplyDeletehttps://jacobinmag.com/2020/07/joe-biden-public-option-single-payer-health-company-donations
The author is not optimistic, but I am. There seems now to be too much pressure on the party for them not to give in on the public option, at the very least. The ascendance of Bernie Sanders, plus all the street protests we’ve seen over the past four years — even going back to Occupy Wall Street — and heck, even arguably (in a perverse way) the election of T***p, are all signs that people are locked in and willing, finally, to afflict the comfortable. But I guess we’ll see.
Also, the repeal of the filibuster would itself be a major achievement, especially if the Republican Party really is headed to post-WII-like irrelevance.
the coming election date will be the time the economy visibly tanks and the true race wars start. Police will lose control and Trump will encourage chaos. Covid will lurk in the background killing the elderly and infirm. Hungry people will be in long food lines, staring at their phones.
ReplyDeleteThat is an interesting question. The Biden administration will have a short timeframe in which to make big changes before Democrats become nervous about the midterms. At first, the administration will spend enormous time and energy just to get stuff working again. Trump and the GOP have done great damage to the institutions of the federal government. They're not beyond repair, but Democrats will have their work cut out for them.
ReplyDeleteThe administration will also have to help people in dire need of services and work. And it will have to expand health care so that it becomes plausible that most people can get the vaccine.
The administration, in short, will be very busy, and I agree that if there are big progressive changes to be made, the pressure will have to come from the bottom. We now know that even in the midst of a pandemic, young people are capable of taking to the streets to put pressure on the electeds to effect change. However, taking to the streets won't be enough. Progressives will need their allies in Congress, and they have them, primarily in the House, but also in the Senate
So the answer to your question, I fear, is something rather unspectacular. It's a matter of showing massive support for the proposals of progressives in Congress--progressives such as AOC, Pramila Jayapal, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and others. The need to expand health care to deal with the pandemic can be a vehicle for big progressive changes. The need to put people back to work can be a vehicle for a Green New Deal. Nancy Pelosi, the Senate, and Biden himself will want to moderate the progressive push from the House and their allies in the Senate, but if it can be demonstrated that there is massive support for their proposals, then they have a chance.
I assume immediate action on the economy will be needed e.g.infrastructure, etc. Trump tax cut repealed. Filibuster ended of course. Expansion of circuit and district judges to dilute and limit the damage from McConnell's packing and which will serve as a warning to the Roberts. D.C. and PR statehood. Fix the Voting Rights Act. Federalize MedicAid and start lowering the Medicare age. If enough states are flipped (governors and legislatures) we can do an end run around the Electoral College.
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