Danny responded to my disparaging remarks about Herman Kahn in a way that, I feel, requires some comment although I really do not want to go down that rabbit hole yet again. Sixty years ago I spent a good deal of time dealing with Kahn’s big book, On Thermonuclear War. The book is a fraud, a farrago of pseudo-arguments essentially designed to justify the first strike nuclear policy advocated in those days by some branches of the military. I debated Kahn before a thousand people at Jordan Hall in Boston and I spent a great deal more time back in the day than I like to recall with the details of his book.
As for game theory, I have said what I have to say about it
in my other blog. That blog was actually a connected series of posts over two
months in 2010 that constituted a short book on the use and abuse of formal
methods in political philosophy. The book is archived at box.net if anybody is
interested.
Meanwhile, we are only 48 days from the election, early
voting has started here in North Carolina and will start elsewhere as soon as
Friday, and as each week goes by the polls virtually do not move. We have had
July surprises, August surprises, September surprises, and very possibly we
will have October surprises but I am more and more confident that none of them
will do anything to change the basic shape of the election.
I trust most of you saw the clips of Trump’s latest
interaction with reporters in which he trotted out his new shiny object, “herd mentality.”
Lord, that man is an idiot. I did a little rough calculation this morning as I
walked and if I understand the data that the experts have been putting out, in
order to achieve herd immunity America would have to suffer somewhere more than
another 1 million deaths from the virus. Trump couldn’t care less, but it is
nice having him on tape pushing the idea so that the rest of us can hold his
feet to the fire about it.
28 comments:
Go away; you rotten old man. President Trump just facilitated an historic treaty between Israel and her neighbors, taking a giant step towards Mideast Peace, Palestinian riots notwithstanding. He has made us energy independent, pushed hard for a CV vaccine, produced the best economy since 1960, reformed the VA and the penal system, defeated ISIS, negotiated fair trade deals- putting American economic interests 1st, and appointed over 200 constitutionalist judges, who will soon put an end soon to the abortion madness your ilk has inflicted on our country. (Hoping RBG also departs this earth soon.) We get it- you hate America. But the fact is decent, hard-working, family oriented people love POTUS DJT because he has kept his promise to improve THEIR lives, not those of parasitical careerist like you. You talk a good game of economic justice, he's actually produced it. I saw it all over Detroit before the unnecessary lockdown, which YOU dementedly called for in the wake of the impeachment failure. But, guess what, that move also proved to be of no avail. Cause a pseudo-crisis, blame it on DJT- no deal, Americans too smart to fall for that one. In your own battleground state, a red tidal wave is forming as we speak. And 11.04 your rioting allies will be put in their place: ton of bricks, AH, ton of bricks. MAGA!
careerists*
Where have you been? I've missed you.
Good thing he caught and corrected the typo in "careerist." To think how silly he would've looked otherwise!
RFGA, Ph.D's comments, especially the remark about hating America, remind me of Richard Hofstader's essay on pseudo-conservatism from the mid-50s. It's quite relevant today, I think. It can be found online here: https://theamericanscholar.org/the-pseudo-conservative-revolt/
RHGA, PhD,
Masterful!
Man, RFGA, if you're going to troll a blog effectively, try a little nuance. Now everyone knows your're just an illiterate tool.
Asgheir,
Thanks, I had forgotten about that article. Ain’t it something when a guy like Caputo laid out his fears, paranoia and delusions in so bare a fashion. In any event he will have made his contribution to destroying what he thinks he is saving.
Interesting:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientific-american-endorses-joe-biden/
RFGA Ph.D. must surely be an artificial stupidity algorithm modelled on our great and glorious leader.
You know, if we are going to talk about Kahns, could we please focus on Madeleine rather than Herman? Geez! I've always preferred comedies to horror flicks. And don't get me started on cons...
Waiting until Rassmussen's poll numbers indicated that your attempt to drive DJT from office by creating a pseudo-crisis out of CV 19 had failed. I can't taunt you when you are successful in your evil doing. As Dylan accused his ex-lover (Baez?) I like to be on the side that's winning.
RE: RFGA Well, you have at least succeeded being on the side that's whining.
Let's all take a moment to laugh at RFGA, PHD's 1.8/5 RMP rating here:
https://www.ratemyprofessors.com/ShowRatings.jsp?tid=949682
Starting from the top:
"Talks to people like they are stupid and childish. Yells all of the time. Very rude. Will not answer questions that you have about problems regarding assignments. He yells and says "no I will not look at your paper", so you are left to figure your mistake on your own. He has called the whole class ignorant and not able to comprehend and read."
Appears consistent with the guy's posts.
Yeah, I didn't take shit from hateful, clueless punks. Retired now. Got pension from scumbag institution. I won. Never compromised my principles. Fired from almost every college in SE MI. That is main reason, after abortion advocacy, that I hate folks here and leftists in general. GFY.
So you hate leftists and the folks who visit this blog because you were a garbage instructor that got yourself fired repeatedly. And also because abortion advocacy is a thing. Cool story bro. Now tell us all about how accepting your government pension after getting fired repeatedly aligns with your conservative principles.
It's not govt. AH; it was EARNED, set aside, like autoworkers or other public employees. No shit instructor either- not 1 administrator who actually visited gave me anything but high marks. And students who were respectful and wanted to learn did fine- have test scores and term papers to prove it. I stood up to so-called students who refused to meet same standards I was held to: U Mich; Wayne State. Leftists administrators want you to lower them: it's called grade inflation. Abortion is pure evil. If you can't see that you are sick. GFY.
"Got pension from scum-bag institution...". "...that is main reason...". Curious thing, this neglect of indefinite and definite articles in English grammar. Just say'n.
Wait -- I'm Danny!
Professor, I'm still laughing at how you mocked Trump's incorrect use of the term 'strenuous', as in 'strenuous flu', as if it would be rather pathetic to misuse such a word. It's not that it's *that* funny, it's that you couldn't admit your error. I think maybe I could join you, in meditating on the power and glory of admitting you're wrong. Some people can never admit they're wrong. I flatter myself, that whatever my flaws, and though it might grieve me that I am no smarter than I look, I know how to gracefully admit I'm wrong. This is not what I mean:
It’s not wrong.
But if it IS wrong, I didn’t do it.
And if I DID do it, it’s not my fault.
And if it IS my fault, someone else caused me to do it.
And besides, other people have made worse mistakes.
So let’s move on to focus on other things. ;)
'Sixty years ago I spent a good deal of time dealing with Kahn’s big book, On Thermonuclear War. The book is a fraud, a farrago of pseudo-arguments essentially designed to justify the first strike nuclear policy advocated in those days by some branches of the military. I debated Kahn before a thousand people at Jordan Hall in Boston and I spent a great deal more time back in the day than I like to recall with the details of his book.'
Do you have to say 'a fraud', -- 'a farrago of pseudo-arguments' etc.? This book was calculated to be read
by the military planners. It was not directed to amusement or entertainment. Controversial? Yes, also ambitious and significant. Were there others equally qualified? Sure, and probably also equally depressed at the prospect before them, although, on the other hand, I can picture Kahn as having been a profoundly informed thoughtful man. He had been intimately connected with the three War Colleges for the Air Force, the Army, and the Navy (indeed, the author of the highly regarded Guide to Naval Strategy). The heart of the Kahn book was an analysis of what was to be learned from military history reaching into the past to World War I. The idea here, I gather, was to deal with all of the scientific realism of which anyone is capable with
the practical consequences of various types of war.
You say it's 'designed to justify the first strike nuclear policy advocated in those days by some branches of the military', which might be taken with a grain of salt, when it comes to the book's recommendations and conclusions. I think, that the primary teaching that I got out of it, was that a civilian defense program is sound. For example, as I recall, the book recommends a supplemental budget of at least five hundred million dollars a year for the
development of minimum fallout protection (this, in a detailed plan that also gets into strategic evacuation).
A larger point, though, is that for a moment at least, I suspect, this was the most read and most considered book in Washington. I construe these recommendations as having contributed substantially, to maybe what we might call a new serious attention which the government was giving to civilian defense problems. So yeah, whatever, Kahn
included large scale community shelters and particularly the conversion of buildings which might be used for shelter and for other purposes, and also believed
that the government should put small family-type shelters in every town in the United States so that the population might see and examine them to the end of building their own.
I say 'whatever', because okay, what does this have to do with 'designed to justify the first strike nuclear policy'?
I do recall, if it seems relevant, that Kahn believed that if we were to undertake a really mammoth civil defense program-say something of the twenty to thirty billion dollar variety-we might cause the Soviet Union to believe that we were preparing for a war of first strike rather than for a war of deterrence. But I think one might feel misled about how you have construed this -- I thought it was clearly all offered in a spirit of 'if we are to cling to our policy of deterrence'.
We can pause to consider this vital subject technically if it's up to me. It wouldn't actually take more than a pause, to consider what an incredibly large portion of our national budget is now, or, I guess, was, being dedicated to.
If somebody has an opinion about what is clearly the best solution to these grim problems of war, then fine. I'm just saying that if you are looking for the least optimistic of all of the serious writers on the future war, then it's certainly not this guy. And I'll add, thatt thank goodness the great need of the time is not firmness and sobriety. I mean, cripes, what if it was?
RFGA, Ph.D. said...
Yeah, I didn't take shit from hateful, clueless punks. Retired now. Got pension from scumbag institution. I won. Never compromised my principles. Fired from almost every college in SE MI. That is main reason, after abortion advocacy, that I hate folks here and leftists in general. GFY.
----------------
paranoia
noun: paranoia
a mental condition characterized by delusions of persecution, unwarranted jealousy, or exaggerated self-importance, typically worked into an organized system. It may be an aspect of chronic personality disorder, of drug abuse, or of a serious condition such as schizophrenia in which the person loses touch with reality.
Right, you demons are out to destroy the Roman Catholic Church and kill babies and institution of nuclear family- all the while shifting our country's manufacturing base to Red China- but I'm 'paranoid' in doing what I can to meet your existential threat. Spare me the gaslight. And see, I CAN use articles, although their ommision is common online speak.
I have two more cents --
Somebody could say that the Cold War is a complex history to analyze, and I would say that this point is well taken. Even if you want to suggest that we could gain insight by focusing on a part of the problem only, it's an idea. But there is a flood of literature here, and maybe much of it is excellent by any standards, but the Cold War remains the most enigmatic and elusive international conflict of modern times.
What I think can be said for sure, is that you yourself have not been inclined to alter your assumptions and conclusions. Also, I think it it can be said that twenty years of scholarship have produced no consensus. So, fine, hold fast to established intellectual preferences. It is not strange, though, that scholars choose to disagree, just like politicians and statesmen so forth.
The resolution of the quarrel is nowhere in sight.
Damn it, RFGA, get your damn articles right. "...and institution of nuclear family". What's missing there? Russians, generally, are intelligent as hell, but I still can't figure out their neglect of English articles. Just a head's up.
RFGA PhD (12:58pm; 9/16/2020):
1. “Go away; you rotten old man.”
You’re the one reading and commenting on RPW’s blog. If you don’t like it, then you’re the one who should go away. And based on your comments and diehard support for Trump (a dark, evil, nihilistic blackhole and a narcissistic, Machiavellian, sociopathic fascist), I would say you’re the rotten one, not RPW.
2. “[Trump] has made us energy independent”:
Perhaps but at an extreme cost. He is intentionally exacerbating the climate crisis. Consider all the extreme forest fires in California, the hurricanes in the Southeast, etc. A few years ago the Trump administration released a document admitting that the climate crisis is real but saying that nothing can be done to curb it and so we might as well extract as much fossil fuel as possible, the planet be damned. Also, in some legal document, Trump’s golf club in Scotland admitted that climate change and rising sea levels will adversely affect the golf club. So Trump is lying to his followers (including you) when he says that climate change is a hoax.
3. Trump has “pushed hard for a CV vaccine”:
Yes, but the Trump administration has otherwise utterly failed to contain and mitigate the coronavirus pandemic: so far, 6.8 million confirmed cases and 200,000 US deaths. This is SIXTY-SEVEN 9/11s (3,000 US deaths per 9/11). If Bush Jr. or any other president had allowed a 9/11-type terrorist attack to occur 67 times, then he would automatically be considered the worst president in US history. But Trump has achieved this in terms of the death count, which will only increase.
Furthermore, if the US had implemented the same coronavirus measures as Germany has done, the US could have prevented 70% of those deaths. If the US had implemented the same measures as South Korea and Singapore, the US could have prevented 99% of those deaths.
Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/19/faster-response-prevented-most-us-covid-19-deaths
Also, in February, Trump confessed to Bob Woodward that he *knew* that the upcoming pandemic would be horrendous but he was always going to downplay it.
Here is a (partial) timeline of his lies and the rising number of cases and deaths:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uLJkpH__os&list=PLAL0K3d-vmwm48C6431uw6fWIPq7lbVMN&index=9&ab_channel=TheLincolnProject
4. Trump has “produced the best economy since 1960”:
Before the pandemic, the official unemployment rate was very low but that statistic is highly misleading. It doesn’t distinguish between full-time and part-time employment (under-employment). It doesn’t account for people who are out of the labor force (e.g. they are long-term unemployed and have stopped looking for a job). In 2018 or so, the labor force participation rate was roughly 60%. So roughly 40% of adults were out of the labor force. Yes, this includes students and retirees, but a large share consists of working-age adults who aren’t working at all. Now you might cite the performance of the stock market since November 2016, but realize that the top 20% of Americans own 92% of stocks and the bottom 80% own 8% of stocks. So, during the “Trump stock market,” the bottom 80% of Americans have barely benefitted, whereas the top 20% (especially the top 1% and 0.1%) have greatly benefitted. Whenever Trump brags about the stock market, his actual target audience is the top 20%, top 10%, top 1%, or top 0.1%, NOT the family with a household income of $50K or less, who owns little to no stocks.
Since the pandemic, we have had an economic recession/depression that is the worst since the Great Depression. And it didn’t have to be this way. If the US had taken the same coronavirus measures as Germany, South Korea, or Singapore has done, there would be far fewer deaths AND less economic damage; the US economy and populace would be in much better shape, albeit not in stellar shape. The US pandemic response and the US economy are interlocked. Trump has utterly failed to contain and mitigate the pandemic and so the economy has suffered accordingly. Do not be fooled by the stock market, which the Fed is artificially propping up.
5. Trump has “negotiated fair trade deals- putting American economic interests 1st”:
The new trade deals (e.g. NAFTA 2.0) are not much better than the previous ones (NAFTA). If you think NAFTA 2.0 and the other trade deals are going to stop globalization, off-shoring, out-sourcing, and the corporate race to the bottom (i.e. hiring the cheapest labor available in the global market), then you’re delusional.
In addition, Trump’s prolonged trade war with China has hurt many US workers, including US farmers. If you assign great weight to the stock market (e.g. the S&P 500), it would arguably be significantly higher today if Trump were not still waging this prolonged trade war.
6. Trump has “appointed over 200 constitutionalist judges, who will soon put an end soon to the abortion madness your ilk has inflicted on our country”:
The corporate elite and plutocrats that truly control the Republican Party (and Democratic Party) do not care whatsoever about abortion. The Republican Party just uses abortion (among other issues) as a cultural wedge issue in order to win votes from poor and middle-class social conservatives (e.g. evangelicals). See Thomas Frank’s ‘What’s the Matter with Kansas?’.
Regardless of whether the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, many wealthy and upper-middle-class Republican women (or pregnant, young daughters from such families) will still get abortions. If they cannot do it in their state, they will do it in another state. If they cannot do it in the US, they will do it abroad. I guarantee this. Also, recall that Trump made his mistresses sign non-disclosure agreements that required them to get an abortion if they became pregnant. So, yes, Trump does not give a shit whatsoever about abortion, or for that matter Evangelicalism, Christianity, religion, or morality.
7. “We get it- you hate America”:
Unlike Cadet Bone Spurs and probably yourself, RPW has actually served in the US Army National Guard. RPW does not hate America; he is an FDR liberal/social democrat/democratic socialist who wants America to improve and progress in terms of its social programs and safety net. And I think it’s extremely ironic that Trump supporters constantly accuse liberals or Democrats of hating America, when they proudly support an authoritarian fascist who despises the US Constitution, the system of checks and balances, and the rule of law; who admires and emulates Putin and other dictators; who calls his opponents “enemies of the state”; who previously suggested postponing the election; who is demanding three terms as president; who lies constantly about the legitimacy of mail-in voting; who refuses to say whether he will leave office if he loses the election; and who is hinting at Civil War 2.0 if he loses the election.
In this sense, you and your fellow deplorables hate America, the US Constitution, and the norms of US democracy. You and your Emperor Nero want to burn it all to the ground. Trump’s campaign explicitly describes their strategy as “scorched earth” and you cheer loudly (like the Germans in the 1930s), as you hurl yourselves into the Abyss of Nihilism.
Sources for my second main point listed above, regarding climate change:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees-a-7-degree-rise-in-global-temperatures-by-2100/2018/09/27/b9c6fada-bb45-11e8-bdc0-90f81cc58c5d_story.html
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-acknowledges-climate-change-at-his-irish-golf-course/
It was his Irish golf course, not his Scottish golf course.
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