MEANWHILE THE WORLD GOES ON

Although I have been spending most of my time caring for my wife, I have along the way been watching the endless television coverage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I wrote a brief post several days ago designed to emphasize the danger that is posed by Vladimir Putin’s implied threat of using nuclear weapons. Today I would like to expand on this because it is far more important than anything else happening at the present time. It was the danger of a nuclear war that got me involved in politics more than 60 years ago. I was one of many people around the world who worked unsuccessfully for nuclear disarmament. If it was obvious then it is equally obvious now that a war fought with nuclear weapons would simply end the world as we know it. I will not bother to take any time explaining why this is so unless there is someone reading this blog so dim as not to understand it.

 

From the very beginning, it was obvious that there were three ways in which we could stumble into nuclear war: through escalation of conventional warfare that got out of hand and led to the use of nuclear weapons; through accident or the mistaken interpretation of unclear evidence in a battlefield situation; and through the deliberate decision of someone who had lost the ability to make rationally self-interested decisions and self destructively initiated the use of nuclear weapons.

 

All three of these are threats in the present situation. It is obvious that direct military confrontation between NATO and Russian forces could easily lead to an escalation resulting in the use of “tactical” nuclear weapons which could then very quickly and uncontrollably lead to the use of strategic nuclear weapons. It is also clear that if Soviet and American fighter jets were to confront one another over Ukraine, it would be fatally easy for a jet pilot armed with nuclear weapons to misread a battlefield situation and make a split-second wrong decision that would result in nuclear weapons being used. It also appears to be the case, although I am an absolutely no position to judge the likelihood of this, that Vladimir Putin, confronted with a humiliating and even career ending military defeat in Ukraine, could issue orders for the use of nuclear weapons, even though it would certainly result in his death. Whether those orders would be obeyed or not is something that none of us can rationally judge.

 

If we do survive this, God willing, I think it is actually possible that this crisis will work to the benefit of the Democrats in the midterm elections. Wouldn't that be enjoyably ironic!

 

I have been reassured by the flat refusal of Pres. Biden and the American military to even consider establishing a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine through the use of American military jets. The calls for the establishment of such a no-fly zone by American politicians are irresponsible and literally insane, but at least thus far the American military establishment and its political rulers appear firmly committed to resisting all such demands.

 

This gives Russia a great tactical advantage, of course. That fact was well understood half a century ago by people thinking and writing about nuclear war and it was one of many reasons why those of us who sought nuclear disarmament argued that nuclear weapons were never a satisfactory form of defense. But we lost that argument and so here we are, in 2022, hoping that Vladimir Putin is rationally self-interested or, alternatively, that close to him are advisors and generals who will if necessary kill him.