After anguishing for several weeks about the New York Times
poll showing Trump beating Biden in 5 out of 6 battleground states, commentators
turned their attention on Tuesday night to yet another series of Democratic
Party victories in local off year elections and ballot initiatives. The endless
television commentary about these events almost entirely ignored what I remain
convinced is the single most important factor, after abortion, in the upcoming
election cycle: the outcome of the first of a series of trials of Trump at the
federal and state levels.
Judge Chutkan has made it clear that she will not
move the March 4th date for the beginning of the trial in DC, and has even
scheduled jury selection for the weeks prior to that time to make sure that the
trial can begin on her date specified. Some while ago, Jack Smith announced
that the prosecution’s case would take from 4 to 6 weeks, so sometime in late
April, we can expect the prosecution's lead litigator to announce “Your Honor,
the prosecution rests.”
It is not clear at that point what sort of case the
defense can put on, because they cannot argue that Trump truly believed he had
won the election without putting him on the stand, and everyone seems to agree that would be a disaster for the defense. Nevertheless, one way or
another, by early or middle May the case will go to the jury. I think we can
project that by early June they will come back with a verdict. If, as I expect,
the verdict is guilty on some or all of the counts, the Republican party will
be faced with the prospect of convening its July presidential nominating
convention with Trump having won enough delegates to take the nomination and
having been found guilty in the most important trial facing him.
At that point, the Republican Party will have an impossible
choice: to nominate Trump while they await his sentencing or perhaps await the
carrying out of the sentence already handed down, or to change their rules on
the spot to avoid nominating him, with all of the attendant chaos that would
produce.
The same New York Times poll that showed Trump beating Biden
in 5 out of 6 battleground states also asked the question “if Trump is
convicted of one or more of his charged crimes, how would you vote,” and something
like 6% of the Trump voters announced that they would then vote for Biden,
giving him victory in all of the battleground states.
We have a long year ahead of us and I for one will give as much
money as I can to the Democratic legislative campaign committee, to support
Democrats in local races across the country, but I really do think the odds are
very strongly in Biden’s favor.