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Saturday, November 23, 2024

There is no such thing as a Tactical nuclear weapon

During my long convalescence, I wrote several blog posts in my head. One of them concerned the talk about Russia's use of nuclear weapons. Since the talk has reemerged, I have decided to post it here. To make it of reasonable length, I have omitted an explanation of the difference between fission and fusion nuclear weapons. If anybody is interested, I can give that in a second post.

The distinction between tactics and strategy has a long history in discussions of military affairs. Tactics concerns choices on the battlefield. Whether to use massed archers before a cavalry attack, whether to combine infantry with a tank battalion, whether to defend a front with long dug in trenches – that sort of thing. Strategy concerns large-scale military decisions – the best example from recent wars is Hitler's disastrous decision to attempt to fight a two- front war, which was the source of his defeat.

Nuclear weapons were developed in the United States during the second world war by the so-called Manhattan project, headed by Robert Oppenheimer. The theory underlying the development was well-known by physicists around the world, but the technical problem of developing a usable nuclear weapon were formidable.

When the first prototype worked, it was so powerful that an entirely new term was invented to describe its magnitude. Bombs had been used in the first world war, in the Spanish Civil War, and extensively in the second world war. The convention had developed of classifying these bombs according to the amount of TNT equivalent to the explosive they contained. A 500 pound bomb was a bomb  whose explosive power was equivalent to 500 pounds of TNT. A bomb  rated at 1000 or 2000 pounds of TNT was called a "blockbuster" because even one of them could destroy several buildings in the city.   Oppenheimer and his associates invented the term "kiloton" or "1000 tons" to describe the bomb they created.

After the first prototype worked, Pres. Truman gave the order to use one against Japan. The war against Japan had for the most part consisted of a series of amphibious attacks of Pacific islands. Each island attack was extremely bloody.  Truman was told that an amphibious attack on Japan itself could cost a hundred thousand American lives. He therefore ordered that a nuclear weapon be dropped on a Japanese city in effect to terrify the Japanese into surrendering.  The bomb dropped on Hiroshima was rated at six or seven kilotons.  When the Japanese failed to surrender, Truman ordered a second somewhat more powerful bomb to be dropped on the city of Nagaski. This time, the military surrendered and the war was over.

That was the only time nuclear weapons have ever been used in war.

There are a good many old people around who were alive when these nuclear weapons were used – I am one of them. There are even some men still alive who were in the Army when they were used. But 79 years later there is no one in any army now who was alive when they were used. No Lieut., Major, Col., or General alive now was in the Armed forces when they were used.

In the 1960s, dispite a good deal of opposition From Oppenheimer andd others, the United States developed fusion or so-called hydrogen bombs, each of which was roughly 1000 times as powerful as the original fission bombs.Once again, a term had to be invented for them – megaton bombs.

Because the atomic bombs were too powerful to be used, for example, in the Korean War, an entirely new field of study called "deterrence theory" came into existence, staffed and developed not by soldiers but by psychologists and economists and political scientists. (This, by the way, was the subject of the first book I wrote, which I never got published.)

What is the point of all this:  it is widely assumed that the war between the United States and the Soviet Union using fusion bombs would last perhaps an hour or two before both countries would in effect be obliterated. Avoiding such a war (and, if you can believe it, actually planning for such a war) was clearly a matter of strategy.  By default, the fusion bombs – descendants of the bombs originally used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki were labeled "tactical nuclear weapons."

The war between Russia and Ukraine has been fought with traditional weapons, notably with the use of cruise missiles. A cruise missile is essentially a small pilotless airplane launched from as much as a thousand miles away, guided by radio and then pointed at its target.  Guided missiles can carry payloads of various sorts, but a typical guided missile carries a warhead equivalent to 1000 pounds of TNT.

A "5K tactical nuke", as they are jauntily referred to by supposedly knowledgeable military characters on television, would therefore be the equivalent of 10,000 guided missiles.  Since its warhead would have the explosive power 5 thousand tons of TNT, which is to say 10 million pounds of TNT, it would be as powerful as 10,000 guided missiles each of which carry explosives equivalent to 1000 pounds of TNT.

What earthly could use such a weapon be on the battlefield?  If two groups of massed tanks faced one another, it could certainly wipe out all of the Ukrainian tanks, but it would probably also wipe out all of the Russian tanks as well, and a good deal of the surrounding territory to boot. Depending on which way the wind was blowing, it would also kill the Russian commanders and everyone else in the neighborhood.

That is why there is no such thing as a tactical nuclear weapon.

17 comments:

james wilson said...

Glad you’re still fighting this fight alongside the other more personal one you’re now engaged in. I’ve read in a number of places that there are a number of people in high places who actually imagine that they can win a nuclear war—though it seems to me it would all be so contrary to all past human experience that to call it a war is a very misleading misnomer. On the brighter side, besides yourself there have been a number of people publicising the awfulness of such an event. I took it as a sign that there was also a quite high level counterattack against the use of nuclear weapons when the NYT recently published its series of articles on their hideousness .

Bill Edmundson said...

Bob, incisive as ever. But I have a question. You write "When the Japanese failed to surrender, Truman ordered a second somewhat more powerful bomb to be dropped on the city of Nagaski." The "when" must refer to the interval between Aug. 6 and Aug. 9, 1945. Was there in fact a "Surrender or we'll drop another!" demand made of Japan, which it failed to respond to in that interval?

marcel proust said...

You wrote a paragraph in which 2 consecutive sentences contradict each other. I think you meant to say something different in the first of these sentences, ("There are even some men... " but I cannot figure out what it is, so I hope you will clarify. The paragraph is:

There are a good many old people around who were alive when these nuclear weapons were used – I am one of them. There are even some men still alive who were in the Army when they were used. But 79 years later there is no one in any army now who was alive when they were used. No Lieut., Major, Col., or General alive now was in the Armed forces when they were used.

marcel proust said...

Apropos "it is widely assumed that the war between the United States and the Soviet Union using fusion bombs would last perhaps an hour or two before both countries would in effect be obliterated.", I am reminded of this song.

Christopher J. Mulvaney, Ph.D. said...

Another great song on the topic is by Randy Newman called 'Political Science.' I performed it either on piano or guitar at every grad student party. I have been performing this song for 40+ years. You can find it on youtube but I had trouble posting it so the lyrics will have to do.

[Verse 1]
No one likes us, I don't know why
We may not be perfect, but heaven knows we try
And all around, even our old friends put us down
Let's drop the big one and see what happens

[Verse 2]
We give them money, but are they grateful?
No, they're spiteful and they're hateful
They don't respect us, so let's surprise them
We'll drop the big one and pulverize them

[Verse 3]
Asia's crowded, Europe's too old
Africa is far too hot and Canada's too cold
And South America stole our name
Let's drop the big one, there'll be no one left to blame us

[Bridge]
We'll save Australia
Don't wanna hurt no kangaroo
We'll build an all-American amusement park there
They got surfing too

[Verse 4]
Boom goes London, boom Paris
More room for you and more room for me
And every city the whole world 'round
Will just be another American town
Oh, how peaceful it'll be
We'll set everybody free
You wear a Japanese kimono, babe
There'll be Italian shoes for me
They all hate us anyhow
So let's drop the big one now
Let's drop the big one now

Anonymous said...

There's no contradiction here. Some people alive now were alive when the bombs were dropped. Some people alive now were in the army when the bombs were dropped. No one in the army now was alive when the bombs were dropped.

Anonymous said...

Which is worse? The slow cooking of humanity by climate change or the relatively fast death of humanity by nuclear devastation? ie frogs boiling on slow cook or quick incineration by steaming?

Michael said...

I’m not sure if you posted this to invite discussion or anything, but as someone who’s been (semi-figuratively) talked down from a few ledges before, I don’t think I’d answer your question in favor of the second option. Instantaneous and complete annihilation is not without a certain rationale, which (as W. James says) our ‘manliness’ obliges us to face: If every life comes to the same thing in the end, and in various ways tends to go badly in the meantime, what’s the sense in postponing?

I never arrived at a totally rational response to this question. But in my experience, probably the main thing that reconciles (or binds) us to life is our hope to make a positive difference in the lives of those we care about (or, our obligation to try). So I think it’s almost instinctive that we ‘envision’ (at least vaguely, semi-coherently) and desire that the world around us will last indefinitely, if only for other people’s sake. For better or worse, I doubt we could find life worth going through at all unless we had a (perhaps unconscious, perhaps unjustifiable) sense of ‘hope’ for the future, or something along these lines.

I don’t think it’s justifiable to believe with any confidence that there will always be a human race - at some point, the whole story comes to an end… Less uplifting than any ‘hope,’ but evidently powerful nonetheless, is our aversion to being around long enough to find out how things end, or even that the end is close. Leave that to our descendants, preferably as remote from us as we are from the ancient world.

marcel proust said...

Thank you. It should have been obvious (to me) but somehow I could not see this when I read it on my own. Your restatement is for some reason clearer to me than the (equivalent) original.

Anonymous said...

I would assume that Russia would use low yield nukes in the same way they are using conventional weapons i.e. to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure - just less drones, bombs and missiles being needed. As for battlefield use - what difference would a few more dead Buryats and Yemenis make in the scheme of things? Escalation management as used with Gaza and Ukraine seems like a failed concept that has only led to lots of dead Palestinians and Ukrainians.

There are two very good reasons (as well as past experience, recent weapons testing failures, and the general culture of corruption) to assume Putin is bluffing:

https://eoimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/90000/90008/earth_vir_2016_lrg.jpg

Ukraine should have been provided with the ability to properly defend itself years ago (looking at you too Obama - lots of failure besides Trump and Biden).

Likewise we are years past the point of marking our Israeli policy to market.

Eric said...

Bill Edmundson: Was there in fact a "Surrender or we'll drop another!" demand made of Japan, which it failed to respond to in that interval?

The first atomic explosion (Trinity) was on July 16. The next day, as Truman's, Stalin's, and Churchill's meeting at Potsdam was beginning, Truman told Stalin that the US now had a new revolutionary weapon; Stalin replied that he hoped the US would use it against Japan. (The Soviet Union at the time was formally adhering to a pact of neutrality with Japan.) On July 26, the US, UK, and Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist China issued a declaration threatening that if the Japanese did not unconditionally surrender they would face "prompt and utter destruction."

On August 6, Truman announced that the US had dropped a nuclear weapon on Hiroshima, in a statement filmed while he was en route back to the US from Potsdam:

"We are now prepared to obliterate more rapidly and completely every productive enterprise the Japanese have above ground in any city. We shall destroy their docks, their factories, and their communications. Let there be no mistake; we shall completely destroy Japan's power to make war.
It was to spare the Japanese people from utter destruction that the ultimatum of July 26 was issued at Potsdam. Their leaders promptly rejected that ultimatum. If they do not now accept our terms they may expect a rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never been seen on this earth. Behind this air attack will follow sea and land forces in such number that and power as they have not yet seen and with the fighting skill of which they are already well aware."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_A8LPtuX5c

The Japanese received his statement later that same day. The Emperor directed his ministers to seek an immediate end to the war, but the hardliners in the military, knowing the technical difficulties involved in producing nuclear weapons (which Japan had also been pursuing), were not convinced that US had used an atomic weapon, and even if they had, that they could have produced more than a handful of others. An expedition was dispatched to determine what exactly had taken place in Hiroshima; it took a few days for reports to get back to Tokyo. And there was a debate among the Japanese officials of what terms of surrender would be acceptable. For the hardliners it was out of the question that the Emperor would relinquish power.

Eric said...

Historian Alex Wellerstein has written in various places that Truman had been somewhat taken by surprise when the second bomb was dropped, and he issued an immediate order that no further nuclear weapon be used without an explicit order directing it from the President. But that's not to say that Truman had not expected that more than one nuclear bomb would eventually be used, only that he apparently had not expected that the military would initiate the second bombing without a direct order from him.

"Just after Trinity, Maj. Gen. Leslie R. Groves, the military head of the Manhattan Project, predicted to J. Robert Oppenheimer...that it would probably require dropping not just two bombs but a third, 'in accordance with our original plans.' He even thought that as many as four bombings could be necessary....

The U.S. plans never projected that two atomic bombs would end the war; officials felt they would need to use atomic warfare and invade....

The final target order was drafted by Groves, shown to Truman, approved by Stimson and Gen. George Marshall, chief of staff of the U.S. Army, and issued on July 25. A directive was sent...to Gen. Carl Spaatz, commander of the Strategic Air Forces in the Pacific. It said that 'after about 3 August 1945,' the 20th Air Force would deliver its first 'special bomb' on Hiroshima, Kokura, Niigata, or Nagasaki.... Furthermore, 'additional bombs will be delivered on the above targets as soon as made ready by the project staff.' New targets would be chosen once the first four were eliminated. It was not an order to drop one atomic bomb; it was an order to permit the dropping of as many atomic bombs that were or would become available."

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/history-magazine/article/did-united-states-plan-drop-more-than-two-atomic-bombs-japan

Eric said...

One other factor affecting the Japanese decision to unconditionally surrender which is too-often forgotten in American retelling of the events leading up to the surrender was that the Soviet Union declared war against Japan on August 8 and invaded Japanese-occupied Manchuria hours later.

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james wilson said...

Given the topic there may be some interest in this. remember it's an unedited transcript of a conversation:

https://scheerpost.com/2024/12/06/lena-herzog-you-cannot-win-a-nuclear-war/