FORECAST

The Republican contest for the presidential nomination is playing out more or less exactly as I described it last December 22nd.  This was not a prediction, mind you.  It was simply an attempt to interpret the rules laid down by the Republican National Committee and the several state republican Committees, and then to calculate Donald Trump's chances of winning the nomination on the assumption -- not prediction -- that Trump gets  35-40 % of the vote and Rubio and Cruz between them get 40 - 50 % of the vote.  My calculations showed that under those assumptions and with those rules, Trump would have the 1237 delegates needed to win the nomination before the July Convention.

My principal error was in failing to keep in mind that Texas, Florida, and Ohio are the home states of three of the candidates.  But because I underestimated the number of delegates Trump would win [a misinterpretation of the rules governing superdelegates], my error does not undermine my conclusion that Trump will get the nomination.

Will this be the end of the  Republican Party as we have known it for the past half century?  Lord, I hope so.  It may well be that the Long Con -- the success of the rich in conning poor Whites into supporting their self-serving economic policies -- is coming to an end.

I remain convinced that Sanders is a stronger candidate for the Democrats against Trump, as well as being preferable on ideological grounds, but I fear he will not get the nomination.

SHAKESPEARE, KIERKEGAARD, AND DONALD TRUMP

The extraordinary Republican debate last night called to mind Shakespeare and Kierkegaard.  "How is that?" you may ask, puzzled, but perhaps also impressed, that I can find pearls in such a swinish pigsty.  Well, as we will all recall, in Act One Scene 5 of Shakespeare's Twelfth Night, the Fool, Malvolio, says "Many a good hanging prevents a bad marriage." Kierkegaard renders this, as the Motto for his Philosophical Fragments, BETTER WELL-HUNG THAN ILL-WED, which we can all agree perfectly sums up Trump's message yesterday evening.

Marvel if you can at this Republican Primary season.  We shall never see its like again.

NUMBER NINE!

The ninth in my series of lectures on Ideological Critique is now available on YouTube.   One more to go [Jane Austen].  Then they shall be available to the ages, and I can go back to bloviating about this extraordinary electoral year.

ELECTORAL UPDATE

More delegate totals have now come in, and it turns out that I am doing quite well, despite the Texas miscalculation.  Thanks to the caucus totals, Trump is now credited with 18 more delegates that I estimated he would have at this time.  I am now quite confident that he will win the 1237 delegates needed for nomination before he gets to the Convention.  In short, Armageddon for Republicans has arrived.

The polls all show Bernie doing much better against Trump than Clinton.  If only the Democratic electorate were rational, but then, if that were so, we would already have socialism!

Here is the updated spreadsheet.

State	Delegates	Likely Trump	Actual Trump	Trump Vote %	Cumulative Difference
New Hampshire	20	7	11	35	plus 4
South Carolina	50	36	50	32.5	plus 18
Alabama	47	32	36	43	plus 22
Arkansas	37	14	16	33	plus 24
Georgia	76	40	40	39	plus 24
Massachusetts	39	14	22	49	plus 32
Okalahoma	40	20	12	28	plus 24
Tennessee	55	28	33	34	plus 29
Texas	152	86	33	27	minus 24
Vermont	16	6	6	35	minus 24
Virginia	46	17	17	33	minus 24
Louisiana	44	16
Idaho	29	10
Mississippi	37	14
Michigan	56	21
Puero Rico	20	7
Ohio	63	63
Florida	99	99
Illinois	66	25
Missouri	49	34
North Carolina	72	25
Arizona	58	58
Wisconsin	42	30
New York	92	52
Connecticut	25	14
Delaware	16	16
Maryland	38	29
Pennsylvania	68	14
Rhode Island	16	6
Indiana	54	45
West Virginia	31	18
Oregon	25	9
California	169	145
Montana	24	24
New Jersey	48	48
New Mexico	21	8
South Dakota	26	26
Nebraska	33	33
Washington	41	14
	1940	1203
Caucus States
Iowa	30		7
Nevada	30		14
Alaska	25		11
Colorado	34
Minnesota	35		10
North Dakota	25
Wyoming	26
Kansas	40
Kentucky	42
Maine	20
Hawaii	16
District of Columbia	19
Northern Mariana Islands	6
Virgin Islands	6
Utah	40
	394
Territorial Convention
Guam	6
American Samoa	6
	12
	Trump Total		318		plus 18
	Needed to Win		1237

STAY TUNED

My numbers are apparently provisional.   I have Trump at 285 delegates total, but TV is saying he may end up with 340!   I will update my spreadsheet when all the results are final.

SUPER TUESDAY

The results are in, and the short of it is that in November Clinton will be on the ballot for the Democrats and Trump will be on the ballot for the Republicans unless what passes for the Republican Establishment pulls off a coup and denies Trump the nomination, in which case all bets are off.

How am I doing as a prognosticator?  Pretty well, except for one big mistake.  I neglected to take into consideration that fact that Texas is Ted Cruz's home state.  As you will see in the spreadsheet below, I overestimated Trump's Texas delegate total by SIXTY-SIX!  Whoops.

Because of the delegate totals from caucus states, which I did not include in my forecast, Trump will still win the nomination, I believe.

Here are the details, for you election fans:

State	Delegates	Likely Trump	Actual Trump	Trump Vote %	Cumulative Difference
New Hampshire	20	7	11	35	plus 4
South Carolina	50	36	50	32.5	plus 18
Alabama	47	32	28	43	plus 14
Arkansas	37	14	13	33	plus 9
Georgia	76	40	36	39	plus 5
Massachusetts	39	14	22	49	plus 13
Okalahoma	40	20	12	28	plus 5
Tennessee	55	28	30	34	plus 7
Texas	152	86	20	27	minus 59
Vermont	16	6	6	35	minus 59
Virginia	46	17	17	33	minus 59
Louisiana	44	16
Idaho	29	10
Mississippi	37	14
Michigan	56	21
Puero Rico	20	7
Ohio	63	63
Florida	99	99
Illinois	66	25
Missouri	49	34
North Carolina	72	25
Arizona	58	58
Wisconsin	42	30
New York	92	52
Connecticut	25	14
Delaware	16	16
Maryland	38	29
Pennsylvania	68	14
Rhode Island	16	6
Indiana	54	45
West Virginia	31	18
Oregon	25	9
California	169	145
Montana	24	24
New Jersey	48	48
New Mexico	21	8
South Dakota	26	26
Nebraska	33	33
Washington	41	14
	1940	1203
Caucus States
Iowa	30		7
Nevada	30		14
Alaska	25		11
Colorado	34
Minnesota	35		8
North Dakota	25
Wyoming	26
Kansas	40
Kentucky	42
Maine	20
Hawaii	16
District of Columbia	19
Northern Mariana Islands	6
Virgin Islands	6
Utah	40
	394
Territorial Convention
Guam	6
American Samoa	6
	12
	Trump Total		285		minus 19
	Needed to Win		1237

NUMBER NINE

I have just recorded the ninth lecture.  It will be posted on Thursday or Friday.  One to go!