How am I doing as a prognosticator? Pretty well, except for one big mistake. I neglected to take into consideration that fact that Texas is Ted Cruz's home state. As you will see in the spreadsheet below, I overestimated Trump's Texas delegate total by SIXTY-SIX! Whoops.
Because of the delegate totals from caucus states, which I did not include in my forecast, Trump will still win the nomination, I believe.
Here are the details, for you election fans:
State | Delegates | Likely Trump | Actual Trump | Trump Vote % | Cumulative Difference |
New Hampshire | 20 | 7 | 11 | 35 | plus 4 |
South Carolina | 50 | 36 | 50 | 32.5 | plus 18 |
Alabama | 47 | 32 | 28 | 43 | plus 14 |
Arkansas | 37 | 14 | 13 | 33 | plus 9 |
Georgia | 76 | 40 | 36 | 39 | plus 5 |
Massachusetts | 39 | 14 | 22 | 49 | plus 13 |
Okalahoma | 40 | 20 | 12 | 28 | plus 5 |
Tennessee | 55 | 28 | 30 | 34 | plus 7 |
Texas | 152 | 86 | 20 | 27 | minus 59 |
Vermont | 16 | 6 | 6 | 35 | minus 59 |
Virginia | 46 | 17 | 17 | 33 | minus 59 |
Louisiana | 44 | 16 | |||
Idaho | 29 | 10 | |||
Mississippi | 37 | 14 | |||
Michigan | 56 | 21 | |||
Puero Rico | 20 | 7 | |||
Ohio | 63 | 63 | |||
Florida | 99 | 99 | |||
Illinois | 66 | 25 | |||
Missouri | 49 | 34 | |||
North Carolina | 72 | 25 | |||
Arizona | 58 | 58 | |||
Wisconsin | 42 | 30 | |||
New York | 92 | 52 | |||
Connecticut | 25 | 14 | |||
Delaware | 16 | 16 | |||
Maryland | 38 | 29 | |||
Pennsylvania | 68 | 14 | |||
Rhode Island | 16 | 6 | |||
Indiana | 54 | 45 | |||
West Virginia | 31 | 18 | |||
Oregon | 25 | 9 | |||
California | 169 | 145 | |||
Montana | 24 | 24 | |||
New Jersey | 48 | 48 | |||
New Mexico | 21 | 8 | |||
South Dakota | 26 | 26 | |||
Nebraska | 33 | 33 | |||
Washington | 41 | 14 | |||
1940 | 1203 | ||||
Caucus States | |||||
Iowa | 30 | 7 | |||
Nevada | 30 | 14 | |||
Alaska | 25 | 11 | |||
Colorado | 34 | ||||
Minnesota | 35 | 8 | |||
North Dakota | 25 | ||||
Wyoming | 26 | ||||
Kansas | 40 | ||||
Kentucky | 42 | ||||
Maine | 20 | ||||
Hawaii | 16 | ||||
District of Columbia | 19 | ||||
Northern Mariana Islands | 6 | ||||
Virgin Islands | 6 | ||||
Utah | 40 | ||||
394 | |||||
Territorial Convention | |||||
Guam | 6 | ||||
American Samoa | 6 | ||||
12 | |||||
Trump Total | 285 | minus 19 | |||
Needed to Win | 1237 |
3 comments:
Is it hypothetically possible that if Hillary gets indicted, she can tank and Bernie can catch up in pledged delegates.
In your dreams! She won't get indicted, she won't tank, and we are stuck with her. There is nothing for it but to support a Bernie effort to transform his campaign into a permanent movement. I am already weary of a Clinton presidency and she hasn't even been nominated yet!
I'm super weary, but we NEED BERNIE so bad. Something must be done!
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