Several friends and relatives have contacted me, asking
whether I am all right, seeing as how I have not blogged for several days. I am fine.
I have just been so angry and depressed by Trump’s attack on the 800,000
or so young people protected by the Deferred Action on Childhood Arrival, or
DACA, program that I could not gin up the animal spirits to write
something. That, together with the horrific
news about these two hurricanes, Harvey and Irma, has left me hiding out a
bit. But the news has unaccountably taken
a turn, and I wish at least to say a few words about the weird events of the
past twenty-four hours.
First, however, I must take note of the reports of Hillary
Clinton’s attack on Bernie Sanders in her forthcoming book about the
election. Apparently, if the leaked
portions are accurate, she claims that Sanders’ criticisms of her during the
primary season did “lasting damage” to her and “paved the way” for Trump’s
victory. I understand that one must be
forgiving and charitable toward someone who has suffered a great loss, but this
is a load of hogwash [what is hogwash anyway?].
It is transparently an effort by the Clinton wing of the Democratic
Party to reassert its accommodationist politics and prepare the way, God help
us, for a 2020 Clinton run for the nomination.
There is nothing especially surprising about this attack. Despicable, to be sure, but not
surprising. Nobody said it was going to
be easy.
Or so I thought. But
then came Trump’s bizarre, unanticipated, incomprehensible surrender to Chuck
Schumer and Nancy Pelosi yesterday. I
have no idea at all why this happened, so I shan’t speculate, but I do think,
as Willy Loman’s wife says in Death of a
Salesman, that attention must be paid.
My American readers will all be aware of what took place [not what transpired – that means
literally breathed about, or more colloquially, what came to light.] But this is all a bit of inside baseball, and
my overseas readers may be somewhat mystified, so a brief summary is in
order. The Congress has been unable
actually to prepare, debate, and pass a budget for the Federal Government for
longer than my younger readers have been alive, so periodically, to keep the government
functioning [or pretending to function], they pass what is called a Continuing
Resolution, or CR, which for a specified time authorizes the government to keep
doing what it has been doing at the same level of expenditures. The time has arrived for another CR. Also, since the Federal Government regularly
runs a deficit, periodically it approaches the limit placed on the national
debt by previous legislation. So long as
the debt falls under that limit, the Treasury is authorized to borrow money by
issuing Treasury Bills and other instruments of debt, thus allowing the
government to pay its bills. Once that
debt limit is reached, as a consequence of the Congress failing to raise
revenues sufficient to cover the expenditures it has already authorized, either
the debt limit must be increased by the Congress or the United States
government will be forced to stop paying the bills. In short, the USA will default. That time has also arrived.
This ought to be a no-brainer, and when the Democrats
control Congress, it is. But there is a
sizeable minority of House Republicans who are desperate to cut government spending,
and who use the advent of a debt limit increase to threaten to vote against the
increase unless they get their way. This
is transparently self-destructive behavior, but they are convinced that they
can work their will by threatening to hold their collective breath until they
expire, as it were. Because of this
behavior, the leaders of the House Republican caucus are compelled to seek
Democratic votes to pass a debt ceiling rise and a CR. This gives the otherwise powerless Democrats
a brief moment of leverage which they could theoretically use to win some sort
of legislative concessions from the Republicans, such as, perhaps, a
regularization of the DACA program.
Meanwhile, the devastation caused by Harvey [and about to be
caused by Irma] creates a politically unstoppable demand for federal relief
funding.
The Republicans, understanding all of this, proposed to
combine the CR and the debt limit increase with hurricane relief funding in one
grand package, to be passed this week. They proposed an eighteen month CR and debt
increase, figuring, quite rationally, that the Democrats would have to agree so
as not to be seen as voting against hurricane help. The 18 month extensions would take them past
the midterm elections, leaving them free to work on such tasty items as tax
cuts for the rich without there being any time soon when the Democrats would
again gain leverage during a debt limit/CR crisis. The Senate Minority Leader, Chuck Schumer, and
the House Minority Leader, Nancy Pelosi, publicly proposed a three month
CR/Debt increase, obviously designed to give them leverage again, after the
hurricane season is over, to get some concessions otherwise impossible to
obtain.
O.K. Got that?
So, yesterday Donald Trump, still nominally President,
called all the Congressional leaders to the Oval Office to arrive at some sort
of deal. Schumer and Pelosi offered
their three month proposal, which House Speaker Ryan had scornfully rejected in
a public appearance before the meeting … and without blinking an eye, Trump
agreed to it. As the Republicans sat
there, stunned, blindsided, betrayed, aghast, Trump invited his daughter,
Ivanka, into the room, presumably as light entertainment and to signal the end
of the “negotiations.” It is not reported
whether she performed a belly dance.
What is going on?
Nobody knows. It is reported that
as the Congressional Republicans left the White House, staffers who were caught
as off guard as the Republicans quietly apologized. Will the agreement stand, or is Trump, as I
write, tweeting that he never said it?
Who knows? Can the Dreamers be
saved? No one knows that either.
Should the Democrats accept a package of concessions in
return for a vote to fund the wall? I shall
leave that debate for another day.