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Now Available: Volumes I, II, III, and IV of the Collected Published and Unpublished Papers.

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Wednesday, March 9, 2016

MORE RESULTS

Here is my spreadsheet with the latest Trump's delegate counts. Note, at the very bottom, that he is now 81 delegates ahead of my December estimate, which means that he can lose Ohio to John Kasich next Tuesday and still be enough ahead of my estimates to cruise to the nomination.

Bernie narrowly won Michigan, a huge victory that changes nothing. Clinton will win the nomination easily,

UNLESS:  Suppose that in May, Trump is clearly unstoppable and the head-to-head polls begin to show that Clinton is in danger of losing the general election to Trump whereas Bernie crushes Trump.  At that point, it is just barely conceivable that the Democratic super delegates will have second thoughts and consider switching to Bernie.

Just sayin'.

State Delegates Likely Trump Actual Trump Trump Vote % Cumulative Difference
New Hampshire 20 7 11 35         plus 4
South Carolina 50 36 50 32.5         plus 18
Alabama 47 32 36 43         plus 22
Arkansas 37 14 16 33         plus 24
Georgia 76 40 40 39         plus 24
Massachusetts 39 14 22 49         plus 32
Okalahoma 40 20 13 28         plus 25
Tennessee 55 28 31 34         plus 28
Texas 152 86 47 27         minus 11
Vermont 16 6 6 35         minus 11
Virginia 46 17 17 33         minus 11
Louisiana 44 16 18         minus 9
Idaho 29 10 10         minus 9
Mississippi 37 14 24         plus 1
Michigan 56 21 25         plus 5
Puero Rico 20 7
Ohio 63 63
Florida 99 99
Illinois 66 25
Missouri 49 34
North Carolina 72 25
Arizona 58 58
Wisconsin 42 30
New York 92 52
Connecticut 25 14
Delaware 16 16
Maryland 38 29
Pennsylvania 68 14
Rhode Island 16 6
Indiana 54 45
West Virginia 31 18
Oregon 25 9
California 169 145
Montana 24 24
New Jersey 48 48
New Mexico 21 8
South Dakota 26 26
Nebraska 33 33
Washington 41 14
1940 1203
Caucus States
Iowa 30 7
Nevada 30 14
Alaska 25 11
Colorado 34
Minnesota 35 10
North Dakota 25
Wyoming 26
Kansas 40 9
Kentucky 43 16
Maine 23 9
Hawaii 16
District of Columbia 19
Northern Mariana Islands 6
Virgin Islands 6
Utah 40
398
Territorial Convention
Guam 6
American Samoa 6
12
Trump Total 442         plus 81
Needed to Win 1237

4 comments:

Chris said...

Well his win in Michigan (like his huge win in Nebraska and Maine) could mean the future delegate counts you have, based off of similar polling, are incorrect. No?

Kid X said...

What about the following scenario, Dr. Wolff. Say Trump gets a wide majority of the delegates but not enough to pass the threshold number to secure the nomination. After some backroom dealing, the Republicans figure out a way to nominate Cruz, Rubio or Kasich instead. Disaffected, Trump decides to run as an independent. Meanwhile, Bernie loses to Hillary. Do you think Bernie would run as an independent against Hillary, if Trump runs as an independent?

Robert Paul Wolff said...

Chris, as I have indicated, I think I underestimated the number of delegates Trump will get. That is why I am still pretty sure that he will win the nomination.

Chris said...

I was talking about Bernie! :)