Here we go, deep into the weeds. Those for whom this sort of obsessive political speculation is anathema can amuse themselves with responsive readings from the Deduction of the Pure Concepts of Understanding from the Transcendental Analytic of the Critique of Pure Reason.
First of all, I cannot yet post the updated spreadsheet of the Republican delegate count because the complete allocation of delegates in states like Illinois is not yet in. However, by losing Ohio, a winner-take-all state, Trump has fallen back in my calculation of his probable delegate total. However, thanks to caucus wins and super delegate first-ballot commitments, he is still enough ahead of my calculations to win the 1237 delegates he needs before the Convention. The TV commentators all seem to think we will be going to a contested Convention, but I remain convinced that Trump will make it past the 1237 mark by late June, when the last primaries are held. this will mean a Clinton/Trump general election contest. I find the prospect of a Clinton campaign or Clinton presidency bleak indeed, but there it is.
If indeed Trump falls short of 1237 delegates, things get very, very weird. Consider, for example, the fact that although the several candidates have won defined numbers of delegates in various primaries, the actual human beings who will go to Cleveland as Trump delegates or Cruz delegates or whatever have not yet been selected. They will be chosen later this Spring at regional and state conventions. These actual human beings will be bound on the first ballot to the candidate whose designated delegates they are, but they will not be bound to vote any particular way on rules changes at the Convention, nor will they be bound after the first ballot.
Furthermore, there is very little in the way of Federal law governing what inducements they can or cannot be offered to vote one way rather than another, after the first ballot is history. Just think for a moment about that. We could see log-rolling of a sort that would make Paul Bunyan blush.
I intend to lay in a goodly supply of wine and pizza for the third week in July.