Coming Soon:

The following books by Robert Paul Wolff are available on Amazon.com as e-books: KANT'S THEORY OF MENTAL ACTIVITY, THE AUTONOMY OF REASON, UNDERSTANDING MARX, UNDERSTANDING RAWLS, THE POVERTY OF LIBERALISM, A LIFE IN THE ACADEMY, MONEYBAGS MUST BE SO LUCKY, AN INTRODUCTION TO THE USE OF FORMAL METHODS IN POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY.
Now Available: Volumes I, II, III, and IV of the Collected Published and Unpublished Papers.

NOW AVAILABLE ON YOUTUBE: LECTURES ON KANT'S CRITIQUE OF PURE REASON
LECTURE ONE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d__In2PQS60
LECTURE TWO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Al7O2puvdDA

ALSO AVAILABLE ON YOUTUBE: LECTURES ONE THROUGH TEN ON IDEOLOGICAL CRITIQUE



Total Pageviews

Wednesday, March 2, 2016

SUPER TUESDAY

The results are in, and the short of it is that in November Clinton will be on the ballot for the Democrats and Trump will be on the ballot for the Republicans unless what passes for the Republican Establishment pulls off a coup and denies Trump the nomination, in which case all bets are off.

How am I doing as a prognosticator?  Pretty well, except for one big mistake.  I neglected to take into consideration that fact that Texas is Ted Cruz's home state.  As you will see in the spreadsheet below, I overestimated Trump's Texas delegate total by SIXTY-SIX!  Whoops.

Because of the delegate totals from caucus states, which I did not include in my forecast, Trump will still win the nomination, I believe.

Here are the details, for you election fans:

State Delegates Likely Trump Actual Trump Trump Vote % Cumulative Difference
New Hampshire 20 7 11 35 plus 4
South Carolina 50 36 50 32.5 plus 18
Alabama 47 32 28 43 plus 14
Arkansas 37 14 13 33 plus 9
Georgia 76 40 36 39 plus 5
Massachusetts 39 14 22 49 plus 13
Okalahoma 40 20 12 28 plus 5
Tennessee 55 28 30 34 plus 7
Texas 152 86 20 27 minus 59
Vermont 16 6 6 35 minus 59
Virginia 46 17 17 33 minus 59
Louisiana 44 16
Idaho 29 10
Mississippi 37 14
Michigan 56 21
Puero Rico 20 7
Ohio 63 63
Florida 99 99
Illinois 66 25
Missouri 49 34
North Carolina 72 25
Arizona 58 58
Wisconsin 42 30
New York 92 52
Connecticut 25 14
Delaware 16 16
Maryland 38 29
Pennsylvania 68 14
Rhode Island 16 6
Indiana 54 45
West Virginia 31 18
Oregon 25 9
California 169 145
Montana 24 24
New Jersey 48 48
New Mexico 21 8
South Dakota 26 26
Nebraska 33 33
Washington 41 14
1940 1203
Caucus States
Iowa 30 7
Nevada 30 14
Alaska 25 11
Colorado 34
Minnesota 35 8
North Dakota 25
Wyoming 26
Kansas 40
Kentucky 42
Maine 20
Hawaii 16
District of Columbia 19
Northern Mariana Islands 6
Virgin Islands 6
Utah 40
394
Territorial Convention
Guam 6
American Samoa 6
12
Trump Total 285 minus 19
Needed to Win 1237

3 comments:

Chris said...

Is it hypothetically possible that if Hillary gets indicted, she can tank and Bernie can catch up in pledged delegates.

Robert Paul Wolff said...

In your dreams! She won't get indicted, she won't tank, and we are stuck with her. There is nothing for it but to support a Bernie effort to transform his campaign into a permanent movement. I am already weary of a Clinton presidency and she hasn't even been nominated yet!

Chris said...

I'm super weary, but we NEED BERNIE so bad. Something must be done!