Well, Huckabee and Trump are out. No surprise there, I must say, but as Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com observes, the disappearance of Huckabee shakes things up considerably. I still think someone is going to get the nomination, and if you look at it long and hard, it does seem as though Romney is the unloved probable winner. But if the disappearance of Huckabee results in Bachmann doing really well in Iowa, who knows? It is very striking that more people seem to getting out than getting in. Maybe the smart money has decided that Obama is unbeatable.
Before I state this, I must add the caveat: Yes I prefer Obama to the Republican candidates....well except maybe Ron Paul. Yes, I'd take Paul over Obama - less people would die under Paul's watch.
ReplyDeleteNow, to the juice.
You really think Obama is uneatable? I'd put money down now - if I had any - that he will lose. He beat McCain by 6%, in a period when the overwhelming majority of the country flat out hated George Bush. When the party in power has such a vitriolic hatred, the opposition should win by more than a measly 6%! And yet, not only did he win by so little, but it was contingent upon such a groundswell of a left/progressive base, that even his stalwart supporters admit he's lost. I can't see have producing the groundswell of his old campaign rhetoric. No one buys the hope and change anymore.
Trump out. Yesssss ...
ReplyDeleteYou can't run against Saturday Night Live and win.
Chris, that is exactly the kind of bold unprovable prediction that the Hot Stove League thrives on. I think you are dead wrong, but then I used to root for the Mets back in the day when they never won nuthin'. I do think you are underestimating just how strong Obama had to be in 2008 to win as a black man in America. But hey, you may be right. By the way, he did not win by "a little," as you suggest. It is the rare presidential contest that is won by a bigger margin than that.
ReplyDeleteIt looks as though Gingrich is now imploding. It is a pity there are no off-season trades, as in baseball. That would really juice things up.
I agree he WAS a strong and powerful candidate who cunninginly got an overwhelming youth and left vote to show up at their local voting booths. But I think after 4 years of seeing just how little hope, and change, and in fact how establishment he really is, he won't be able to glavanize those same folks....
ReplyDeleteand a p.s.
ReplyDeleteI know you're a fan of Cornel West. He recently gave an interview about Obama, and how he betrayed him, to Chris Hedges:
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_obama_deception_why_cornel_west_went_ballistic_20110516/
Looks like Newt is out of the game.
ReplyDeletehttp://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/18/can-newt-gingrich-control-newt-gingrich/?hp#
"And perhaps worst of all, an angry Iowa voter confronted Mr. Gingrich, saying that his comments about Mr. Ryan’s budget were 'unforgivable.' With cameras running, the man asked why Mr. Gingrich didn’t get out of the presidential race 'before you make a bigger fool of yourself.' He added, 'You’re an embarrassment to our party.'"
Ouch. That one will play again and again.
Why the "and our party." Can't we all agree that Gingrich is just an embarrassment, period?
ReplyDelete