How are we to think about this? [It goes without saying that we cannot
actually do anything about what will
happen.] Well, if you share my hope that
Trump will either win the nomination or come close enough to destroy the Republican
Party as it is now constituted, then the answer is simple. It is all good.
Why? Because the
principal threat to the Trump campaign is the early and solid coalescing of the
"establishment" vote behind one single candidate acceptable to the
Super-Delegates at the Convention. With
Trump and Carson between them pulling 45-50% of the vote in the primaries, a
single Establishment candidate could climb into first place in at least some
primaries, in which case the rules for delegate apportionment, which I have explained
several times, would favor him [it won't be Fiorina], just as they now favor
Trump. He would need only 700 or so
earned delegates, because the lion's share of the 619 Super-Delegates would put
him over the 1243 mark and secure the nomination.
However, the continued life and even success of two or three
non-Trump/Carson candidates will split the available votes and allow Trump to
rack up huge numbers of delegates despite pulling no more than 35-40% of the
vote in any primary.
At this point, it appears that only Rubio, Cruz, and
Christie have any legs. Bush and Kasich
are dead in the water and Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Pataki, Paul, Huckabee, and
Santorum are polling less than the margin of error.
Be still, my heart.
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