| State | Total | Likely Trump | % of Total |
| New Hampshire | 20 | 7 | 35.0% |
| South Carolina | 45 | 36 | 80.0% |
| Alabama | 47 | 25 | 53.2% |
| Arkansas | 37 | 18 | 48.6% |
| Georgia | 76 | 39 | 51.3% |
| Massachusetts | 39 | 15 | 38.5% |
| Okalahoma | 40 | 21 | 52.5% |
| Tennessee | 55 | 28 | 50.9% |
| Texas | 155 | 72 | 46.5% |
| Vermont | 16 | 8 | 50.0% |
| Virginia | 46 | 16 | 34.8% |
| Louisiana | 43 | 21 | 48.8% |
| Idaho | 32 | 16 | 50.0% |
| Mississippi | 37 | 16 | 43.2% |
| Michigan | 56 | 21 | 37.5% |
| Puero Rico | 20 | 10 | 50.0% |
| Ohio | 63 | 63 | 100.0% |
| Florida | 99 | 99 | 100.0% |
| Illinois | 66 | 40 | 60.6% |
| Missouri | 52 | 39 | 75.0% |
| North Carolina | 69 | 23 | 33.3% |
| Arizona | 58 | 58 | 100.0% |
| Wisconsin | 42 | 36 | 85.7% |
| New York | 95 | 47 | 49.5% |
| Connecticut | 25 | 17 | 68.0% |
| Delaware | 16 | 16 | 100.0% |
| Maryland | 38 | 29 | 76.3% |
| Pennsylvania | 54 | 18 | 33.3% |
| Rhode Island | 16 | 7 | 43.8% |
| Indiana | 54 | 48 | 88.9% |
| West Virginia | 31 | 18 | 58.1% |
| Kentucky | 46 | 16 | 34.8% |
| Oregon | 25 | 9 | 36.0% |
| California | 169 | 130 | 76.9% |
| New Jersey | 51 | 51 | 100.0% |
| New Mexico | 21 | 10 | 47.6% |
| South Dakota | 26 | 26 | 100.0% |
| District of Columbia | 19 | 10 | 52.6% |
| 1899 | 1179 | 62.1% | |
A Commentary on the Passing Scene by Robert Paul Wolff rwolff@afroam.umass.edu
Monday, December 21, 2015
IMPROVEMENTS
My son, Patrick, who is way better at this sort of thing than I am, took my table and put it into an Excel spreadsheet, cleaning things up along the way. Here is the result, which is clearer and more detailed than what I posted. The numbers are still somewhat screwed up, because of errors I made along the way, but I think the basic message remains: Given the assumptions with which I began, Trump could win the nomination by the end of the primary/caucus process.
Ever since Trump began to run, I've noticed a lot of people skeptical about Trump winning the nomination--especially, his haters. As a believer in God, I think God likes to humble people who seem totally positive, adamant in fact, that something is going to happen their way. E.g. the 1918 End of all Wars, the Titanic not sinking, the end of the world in 2012, and the 2015 Blood Moons bringing about, again, the end of the world, etc..
ReplyDeleteMy advice to monotheists, who want to see a candidate for office to fail, is to use 'reversed psychology' in their thoughts, words and actions. They should shout out: 'Trump is going to win the nomination no matter what!' Then maybe they'll get their desire and Trump will not win the nomination. But maybe it's too late?