KEEPING TRACK

Once the caucuses and primaries start [Monday], each time there is another caucus or primary I shall post a spreadsheet showing all of the primary or caucus states, what I forecast several months ago in delegate totals for Trump on the basis of certain assumptions of vote shares, and what he actually accumulates in delegates.  I am now more and more convinced that Trump will be the nominee.

I am completely committed to the proposition that it is desperately important to elect a Democrat, but that leaves me quite puzzled as to whether Sanders or Clinton would do better against Trump.  I think Clinton would be extremely vulnerable to the sorts of outrageous personal attacks Trump specializes in.  Furthermore, I have no doubt that should he win the nomination, Trump will seamlessly and without the slightest embarrassment jettison his extremist views and move to the center, challenging Clinton there.  On the other hand, Clinton has built in demographic advantages that should win her the election against Trump.  As for  Sanders, he would, I think, be completely invulnerable to Trump's brand of personal attack, and he would actually do well with typical angry White male Trump voters.  But I cannot quite believe that Americans would elect a self-described Democratic Socialist, even though that is just code for an FDR liberal.

I am aware that my Marxist readers will say "a pox on both their houses," but I have already explained why I think that is a mistake.

By the way, the argument now being advanced by Clinton supporters like Paul Krugman that Sanders cannot get his proposals enacted into law is a complete non-starter.  Neither can Clinton, since the House will be Republican even if there is an Electoral College blow-out.  But Sanders is building a movement, and Clinton is not, and that could change the complexion of American politics.

Stay tuned.  It is hours now instead of months.