THE FIRST PRIMARY

As promised, here is my spreadsheet of the Republican primary results with the first data from New Hampshire.  Recall that my estimates are based on the assumption that Trump gets 35-40% of the vote and no other candidate gets more than 25-30%.

State	Pledged Delegates	Likely Trump	Actual Trump	Trump Vote %
New Hampshire	20	7	10	35
South Carolina	50	41
Alabama	47	32
Arkansas	37	14
Georgia	76	40
Massachusetts	39	14
Okalahoma	40	20
Tennessee	55	28
Texas	152	86
Vermont	16	6
Virginia	46	17
Louisiana	44	16
Idaho	29	10
Mississippi	37	14
Michigan	56	21
Puero Rico	20	7
Ohio	63	63
Florida	99	99
Illinois	66	25
Missouri	49	34
North Carolina	72	25
Arizona	58	58
Wisconsin	42	30
New York	92	52
Connecticut	25	14
Delaware	16	16
Maryland	38	29
Pennsylvania	68	14
Rhode Island	16	6
Indiana	54	45
West Virginia	31	18
Oregon	25	9
California	169	145
Montana	24	24
New Jersey	48	48
New Mexico	21	8
South Dakota	26	26
Nebraska	33	33
Washington	41	14
	1940	1208
Caucus States
Iowa	30		7
Nevada	30
Alaska	25
Colorado	34
Minnesota	35
North Dakota	25
Wyoming	26
Kansas	40
Kentucky	42
Maine	20
Hawaii	16
District of Columbia	19
Northern Mariana Islands	6
Virgin Islands	6
Utah	40
	394
Territorial Convention
Guam	6
American Samoa	6
	12
	Trump Total		17
	Needed to Win		1273