Wednesday, February 10, 2016

THE FIRST PRIMARY

As promised, here is my spreadsheet of the Republican primary results with the first data from New Hampshire.  Recall that my estimates are based on the assumption that Trump gets 35-40% of the vote and no other candidate gets more than 25-30%.

State Pledged Delegates Likely Trump Actual Trump Trump Vote %
New Hampshire 20 7 10 35
South Carolina 50 41
Alabama 47 32
Arkansas 37 14
Georgia 76 40
Massachusetts 39 14
Okalahoma 40 20
Tennessee 55 28
Texas 152 86
Vermont 16 6
Virginia 46 17
Louisiana 44 16
Idaho 29 10
Mississippi 37 14
Michigan 56 21
Puero Rico 20 7
Ohio 63 63
Florida 99 99
Illinois 66 25
Missouri 49 34
North Carolina 72 25
Arizona 58 58
Wisconsin 42 30
New York 92 52
Connecticut 25 14
Delaware 16 16
Maryland 38 29
Pennsylvania 68 14
Rhode Island 16 6
Indiana 54 45
West Virginia 31 18
Oregon 25 9
California 169 145
Montana 24 24
New Jersey 48 48
New Mexico 21 8
South Dakota 26 26
Nebraska 33 33
Washington 41 14
1940 1208
Caucus States
Iowa 30 7
Nevada 30
Alaska 25
Colorado 34
Minnesota 35
North Dakota 25
Wyoming 26
Kansas 40
Kentucky 42
Maine 20
Hawaii 16
District of Columbia 19
Northern Mariana Islands 6
Virgin Islands 6
Utah 40
394
Territorial Convention
Guam 6
American Samoa 6
12
Trump Total 17
Needed to Win 1273

1 comment:

  1. The Tyrannosaurus Rump -- aka T.rump -- swaggers onward.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/knecessary/status/636519810562719744

    ReplyDelete