Here is a simple, foolproof way of figuring out how the election
will go.
1. Necessary truth: 100% of those who vote will be either men or
women.
2. Highly
probable prediction: At least 50%, and
probably a bit more than 50%, of those who vote will be women. [Projection from recent elections]
3. Strong Polling
Indication: More men will vote for Trump
than for Clinton. More women will vote
for Clinton than for Trump. The two “gender
gaps.”
4. Current
Polling Results: Trump’s gender gap
advantage with men is smaller than Clinton’s gender gap advantage with women.
Inference: If point
4 holds up, Clinton will win the popular vote [simple arithmetic.]
If Clinton wins the popular vote, she will almost certainly
win the Electoral Vote.
Recommendation:
Periodically check the gender gap polling. Instead of spending the time surfing the
political commentary on the Web, read the Critique.
2 comments:
Re #1: You clearly are ignoring the 50-some gender designations recognized by Facebook.
Welcome back!
Many of my colleagues of a more post-modernist orientation would take issue with that necessary truth, but yes, good heuristic.
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