As I noted here just two weeks ago, 80% of the delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination [i.e. 40% of the total] will have been chosen by the time March 4, 2020 dawns. The big prizes are of course California and Texas [with the other big prize, New York, not scheduled until April 23rd], but tucked in there on March 3rd with the jumbo states is l'il ole North Carolina, so it looks as though those of us down here will have a slightly disproportionately larger shot at making a difference.
Because California and Texas are so expensive to campaign in, candidates like Bernie with an established money machine will have an especially good chance.
This time around, the unpledged superdelegates do not get to vote at the convention until the second round. Unless something crushing surfaces about her, Harris looks to make it past March 3rd, along with Bernie, probably Elizabeth Warren, and maybe [but maybe not] Biden. Booker? Klobuchar? Who knows.
It will be interesting.
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5 comments:
Klobuchar is getting a lot of bad press about alleged abuse of her staff. If some of the stuff that has been alleged is true, she's out of it.
Biden will do better than in the past because of his increased name recognition. But, he won't do well. He's a bad candidate, representing positions that have long been unpopular and, if anything, are even more unpopular now. Polls that having him doing well are nothing but name recognition at this point. (This applied to a large degree to Sanders, too - he has much better name recognition than anyone else except perhaps Biden. That doesn't mean that Sanders won't be a strong candidate - I expect he will - only that it's foolish to take polls taken at this point to be real evidence of it.)
Aaron Blake in WaPo on (some of) the candidates. It will be interesting to see if some that he doesn't discuss at length but only mentions in passing, e.g. Merkley or Buttigieg, do better than currently expected. (Link in next box.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/02/23/top-democratic-presidential-candidates-ranked/?utm_term=.20aa2f209bcd
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