I have three questions about Biden. The first is a snap to answer, the second and third not so much. The first question is, Do I want him to get the nomination? Easy peasy. The answer is NO. Unfortunately, my preference counts for zilch.
The second question is, Will he get the nomination. To be honest, I thought he would fade, but as John Malkovich as Teddy KGB says to Matt Damon in Rounders, Biden keeps hanging around, hanging around. In this RealClearPolitics poll average, Biden gets 28.9%, Sanders gets 17.1%, Warren gets 16.5%, and the rest fall away from that. The rules of the delegate selection process being what they are, these are the only three candidates currently scoring high enough in the polls to win delegates in state primaries. But they only get 62.5% of the total vote in these polls, so the question is, where do the other 30+% go after the candidates at the bottom drop out? I would like to think that those voters will go to Sanders or Warren, but I have no evidence at all for that belief. The single most important factor is the preferences of Black voters, who now choose Biden so overwhelmingly that they are all by themselves propping him up.
I do think no one coming into the Convention will have a majority of the delegates, in which case we are in for quite a bumpy ride.
Finally, the third question is, If Biden gets the nomination, will he win the election? There are two plausible answers, and I haven’t a clue which one is right. The first answer is that the Democratic electorate is so fired up, so eager to vote Trump out of office, that the Democrats could nominate a plastic lawn ornament and it would win. The second answer is that Biden inspires no excitement or loyalty whatsoever, and is therefore the only one of the top four or five contenders who could actually lose to Trump by failing to get the voters to the polls.
I am terribly fearful that some version of the second answer is true, which means taking the nomination away from Biden is crucial.