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Friday, October 4, 2019

MEANWHILE ...


I have been absent from this site for several days not only because of the effects of my weekly trip to New York but also because I have been transfixed by the rapid development of the impeachment process.  Tuesday evening, as I sat slumped in my seat at LaGuardia waiting for my flight, I saw on a TV screen the announcement that the State Department Inspector General had just delivered a cache of new materials to a Congressional committee.  Because my phone was about to die, I was forced to try to lip read the announcement by the CNN talking head.  What will happen next?  Lord knows.  Probably while I type these words with my two forefingers new revelations are being announced on the TV in the kitchen.  But the outcome is now certain.

Trump will be impeached by the House, probably before Thanksgiving and probably as well with virtually no Republican votes.  Then Mitch McConnell will take the Senate at breakneck speed through the Senate trial mandated in the Constitution.  I visualize the Senate trial as rather like a lovely scene from the old Danny Kaye movie, The Court Jester.  [I can still recall the famous phrase, “The chalice from the palace has the potion with the poison but the flagon with the dragon has the brew that is true.”]  At one point Kaye, the Court Jester, is challenged by a knight but he cannot fight because he is not a knight, so he is frog marched double time through the ordinarily leisurely knighting process in order to be eligible to take part in a duel.

Trump will be acquitted by the Senate.  That is a foregone conclusion.  The four or five Republican Senators up for election will have to make an impossible choice.  I suspect that whichever way they choose they will suffer in November 2020.

And then, everything will depend on the relative degree of eagerness to vote of the Democratic and Republican bases.  Right now, it looks good.

One final word, about Bernie.  I hope to God he is all right in the aftermath of his arterial procedure.  He and his wife will have to decide whether he can return to the crushing schedule and unreal effort of a full speed presidential campaign.

11 comments:

howard said...

I am very encouraged by how flustered Trump is. Trump is harried and flustered.
Without going into group psychology theory, he no longer is the emotional leader- he is a victim, fighting for his career and political life. Many might still identify with him, but can they square his blithering new persona with being a winner?
The democrats look like they're in control now.
They ought to keep it up, and parley it into a permanent sty in Trump's eye.
There must be some slogan to make it stick

Jerry Fresia said...

Gazing into my crystal ball:

There are so many crimes piling up on Trump that as with Agnew,
prosecutors will make a deal, resign now and you can live the rest
of your life being The Donald and never see the inside of a jail.

But first they will remove Pence, also criminally libel. The Republicans
will then move Nikki Haley into the VP slot. She will become a formidable
candidate against anyone except Bernie or Warren.

Robert Paul Wolff said...

From your mouth to God's ear, Jerry.

s. wallerstein said...

I see that Romney has just made some very harsh statements about Trump, so that's one Republican Senate vote that Trump will most probably not have. The rats desert a sinking ship, and if the ship of Trump begins to go down, more Republican senators may follow Romney.

In that case, the scenario that Jerry Fresia outlines above may well turn out to be the case.

Ludwig Richter said...

It's interesting to watch Donald Trump come more unglued with each passing day. If it weren't for the possibility that his growing madness increases the odds of him doing even more damage to this country or taking military action somewhere in the world, I would embrace with delight the spectacle of his lunatic unraveling in public as the most propitious sign that he won't make it to the end of his current presidency.

David Palmeter said...

I hope S. Wallerstein is right, but I don’t see it yet. Romney is a special case. He’s Romney; he’s from Utah; he is not up for reelection until 2024. So far the others are paralyzed. Susan Collins, as usual, is trying to have it both ways, but in the end she’ll go with McConnell.

Yesterday I saw a poll report that Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 43% to 41% in the past two weeks. The commentator saw that as a good sign. I was appalled. Forty-one percent of Americans think Trump is doing a good job!

How in hell can you have a working, functional democracy with an electorate like that?

Michael said...

As a rule of thumb, if something is so illogical, indecent, and palpably absurd that no minimally rational person could possibly believe it, then up to about 40% of Americans believe it. I wish I weren't being as serious as I am when I say that.

Anonymous said...

Love to read, not post, but two things:

1. Nikki Haley is 2024 material; she won't touch 2020. Too radioactive.
2. For those who can, read George Conway's article In The Atlantic Monthly.

Dean said...

I agree with Michael @5:17 PM. Put another way, there are some issues (abortion comes to mind) about which reasonable minds cannot disagree. I'll duck out immediately after saying this, but I don't think Trump's approval rating exactly fits this category. The man is an easy person to despise. The President is...interesting. And the man manages to do everything in his power to obscure the ways in which his office is...interesting.

TheDudeDiogenes said...

As I commented on Rod Dreher's blog: Rod, you wrote, "He couldn't help himself. Because he's Donald Trump[.]" Think about that for a moment. If that's true - if Trump really, truly can't help himself - how does that make Trump anything but unfit for office?!

I found Conway's piece to be a most delightful read.

Anonymous said...

Regarding T***p's "approval" ratings, Professor Wolff pointed out some time ago that these perecentages have been remarkably stable. Nothing much he seems to do raises them or lowers them very much. Guess we'll have to see what that means in terms of the impeachment inquiries.