My Stuff

https://umass-my.sharepoint.com/:f:/g/personal/rwolff_umass_edu/EkxJV79tnlBDol82i7bXs7gBAUHadkylrmLgWbXv2nYq_A?e=UcbbW0

Coming Soon:

The following books by Robert Paul Wolff are available on Amazon.com as e-books: KANT'S THEORY OF MENTAL ACTIVITY, THE AUTONOMY OF REASON, UNDERSTANDING MARX, UNDERSTANDING RAWLS, THE POVERTY OF LIBERALISM, A LIFE IN THE ACADEMY, MONEYBAGS MUST BE SO LUCKY, AN INTRODUCTION TO THE USE OF FORMAL METHODS IN POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY.
Now Available: Volumes I, II, III, and IV of the Collected Published and Unpublished Papers.

NOW AVAILABLE ON YOUTUBE: LECTURES ON KANT'S CRITIQUE OF PURE REASON. To view the lectures, go to YouTube and search for "Robert Paul Wolff Kant." There they will be.

NOW AVAILABLE ON YOUTUBE: LECTURES ON THE THOUGHT OF KARL MARX. To view the lectures, go to YouTube and search for Robert Paul Wolff Marx."





Total Pageviews

Friday, November 1, 2019

CRYSTAL BALLS AND HALF FILLED GLASSES


I am a politics junkie.  On election nights, I sit glued to the TV set, watching mesmerized as 1% of the votes come in from a state whose ultimate choice is a foregone conclusion.  I loved Chuck Todd as long as he was the numbers guy on MSNBC and promptly fell out of love when he was promoted to Meet The Press, transferring my affections to Steve Kornacki.  I recall once – I think it was in 1965 or 1966 – when I was on my way home from a conference in Italy, I stopped in England to see Ernest Gellner, whom I knew from his time visiting Harvard [he briefly dated my sister.]  Ernest and his family lived in a country cottage south of London.  It turned out to be election day in England, and even though I had neither interest in nor knowledge of English politics, I sat fascinated in the little living room watching the results come in.  All of which is to say that I stared at my kitchen TV set until the very last vote was tallied yesterday in the House.

As I have often remarked, there are two sorts of people, Eeyores and Tiggers.  I am a Tigger.  Show me a glass slightly damp from the dishwasher and I will describe it as half full.  So I will now offer a wildly optimistic series of predictions.  Like all of my predictions, they are worth no more than the few thousand bytes it takes to record them, save for the last of them, for which I have evidence.

1.         The House will impeach Trump, probably before Thanksgiving.  In all probability few or no Republicans will vote to impeach.

2.         The Senate will hold a trial whose perfunctoriness will probably be determined by whether John Bolton complies with the subpoena soon to be issued.  If Bolton testifies, and if his testimony is damaging to Trump, McConnell may be compelled to hold a real trial in the Senate.

3.         In any case, Trump will not be convicted by the Senate.

4.         Trump’s supporters will be energized and outraged by the trial, but that will subside well before the election, since Trump will still be in office.  The failure of the Senate to convict Trump will outrage our supporters, and that outrage will build, not subside, as we go through the Primary season and into the election.  Democratic turnout next year will be enormous, as it was in 2018.

5.         Trump will be beaten by a progressive Democrat [not by Biden], we will hold the House, and we will take the Senate.

6.         Trump will not go quietly, and for years to come we shall be dealing with the deep-rooted resentments he is mobilizing, not creating, in scores of millions of Americans.

7.         Some time around Inauguration Day 2021 my first YouTube Kant lecture will hit 150,000 views.

4 comments:

howard said...

So Trump is not one of those things inevitable like death and taxes?

Jerry Fresia said...

Pretty good forecasting. Although I think Bernie or Warren needs to drop out early in order to boost the fortunes of the other. The economy seems to be definitely slowing, so that would another and very big nail in
the Trump coffin.

Trump is spending his huge campaign war chest on loyal senators.
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/31/trump-impeachment-senators-donor-062084
Is that legal?

Can Warren beat Trump...or maybe the better question is will the Dem establishment sanction a Warren
nomination. According to a recent NYTs article, they're freaking out about Warren (and, of course, poor old Bernie).

TheDudeDiogenes said...

The fact that Bernie has not been the presumptive Dem nominee since 2016 is, to me, an outrage. I blame both the DNC and the mainstream media, both of which stand to lose much, if Bernie is nominated (much less elected), for the fact that Bernie is not leading the pack of Dem nominees by a significant margin. Bernie is the best chance this country has seen for improving the lot of the lower class in my lifetime (I'm 37), and probably even longer than that. I donate monthly to his campaign (and more, when I can), but I expect that Warren will end up being the Dem nominee. Her tenure will likely be the H. Clinton Presidency that we missed out on in 2016, and I expect (though I'd love to be proven wrong) that there will be an even bigger right-wing backlash in 2024 than we saw in 2016, and perhaps even a victory by a more competent Trump-like authoritarian. Suffice it to say that unless Bernie wins the nomination and election, I foresee very dark times ahead for the US.

Business Leads World said...

MCA Live Transfer Leads professional guarantees to deliver best qualified for MCA Aged Leads with precise and updated knowledge prepared for conversion MCA Live Leads.