Now that Bernie has crept into a win in New Hampshire by the sneaky, underhanded trick of getting more votes than his opponents, and Biden is, as I expected, toast [except that I like toast!] and Bloomberg’s hideousness is being generously overlooked by the hysterical Democratic Establishment, I think it is time to ask three questions to which inquiring minds desire answers.
1. Can Bernie get the nomination? Well, Nate Silver gives him a 44% chance [Lord knows how], and the second best are Biden and no one, so I guess it is not beyond imagining. We will have a much better idea very soon.
2. If Bernie gets the nomination, will he win the election? The Conventional Wisdom is that he will not, but I tend to think he will. The latest poll putting all the remaining serious candidates up against Trump has them all winning. Much more significant, in my view, is that in each of the match-ups, Trump gets the same 43%, which suggests that the election is baked in. Bernie, I am convinced, will do well in the Rust Belt, and that, by itself, should be enough. Rachel Bitcofer has been predicting a Dem win for six months.
3. If Bernie wins the election, what sort of president will he be? That is a complex question. Let us make the cheerful assumption that he comes to office with both Houses of Congress in Democratic hands. He will not be able to get truly radical legislation enacted. I take it that is obvious. He will, viewed purely from the standpoint of efficient administration, be something of a disheveled disaster. But he will be a transformative figure, in a way that the sainted Obama was not, and if – this is the biggest unknown of all – if he continues to build a movement on the ground throughout the country after he is elected [as Obama, mysteriously, did not], he could genuinely change American politics for the better.
All of which is obvious, and will inspire the Establishment to heroic efforts to block him.
Question: Will President Bloomberg release his tax returns?