Sitting here in enforced isolation, even after I have played
hundreds of games of computer solitaire I have a great deal of time to brood
about the political campaign that is now heating up. Herewith a bit of
prognostication, based simply on what I can gather from surfing the web and
using my noodle.
This is now July 17th. In the next six weeks, I
believe, four things are going to happen that are quite likely, taken
altogether, to sink Trump’s political chances. First, in a little less than two
weeks, millions of American families are going to run out of unemployment
insurance and the additional $600 a week mandated by congressional action. As
many as 20 or 30 million American families are going to be unable to meet their
mortgage payments or pay the rent and they will therefore face eviction. This
is going to create a social crisis that will resonate through the entire
country. Second, deaths and Covid-19 infections will continue to rise and in a
number of Republican states hospitals will be overwhelmed and governors will be
forced to reinstitute shutdowns. Third, the Republican national convention, now
scheduled for August 24 in Jacksonville Florida, will be held in some form or
other and judging from the present evidence it is likely that it will be a
political shambles. Finally, starting in middle or late August, elementary and
secondary schools around the country will in some form or another undertake to
open for the fall and the inevitable outbreaks of coronavirus hotspots will
force shutdowns, protests, and in all likelihood legitimate parental hysteria.
As a consequence of the first, second, and fourth of these developments all of
the economic indicators will turn south (with the possible exception of the
stock market, which seems to have become completely unhinged from economic
reality.)
The apprehension that is now reported to be developing
within the White House will intensify, Trump’s chaotic and unhinged performance
will grow even worse, and after Labor Day Republicans will be in full panic
mode at the prospects of a blue tsunami come election day in November.
It is difficult to take pleasure in these prospects when one
reflects on the death and illness and poverty and desperation that will be
inflicted upon the American people. I know it is not particularly noble of me
but I shall be spending this time doing everything I can to make sure that
Susie and I do not contract the virus.
4 comments:
The UNC Board of Governors (a group of Republicans dedicated to the end of public education) is using this moment to amplify the destruction of the UNC system starting with the most oppressed campuses. www.ncpolicywatch.com/2020/07/17/pw-exclusive-unc-system-exploring-worst-case-scenario-budget-cuts-of-up-to-50/
I quite agree that the worst is yet ahead of us, in terms of both the pandemic itself and its subsequent economic effects. Whether that will be enough to sink Trump I remain skeptical. I am not at all looking forward to what the next 6-9 months will do our country, especially it's healthcare "system". Besides the healthcare sector, I anticipate education both hight and lower (and especially public amongst the lower) will also be especially devastated by this enormous crisis. If the US had instituted some sort of system testing and contact tracing, it might make sense to try to achieve some semblance of normality. The lack of such a system will itself go down in our nation's history as an historic public health failure.
"They also serve who only stand and wait".
There are thousands of people who can best play their part in the fight against covid19 by not getting infected. So I think, Professor, that you and your wife are doing your bit.
Inevitably, the Republicans will rise to the challenge and do everything in their power to keep people from voting (campaigns against voting by mail, active suppression of the vote, voter intimidation, shutting down thousands of polling places across the country, etc).
Most of the analysis I've seen focusing on T***p's dismal polling numbers seems to assume that people can easily register to vote and will actually show up to vote; they don't account for the physical, political, and public health constraints on voting. (I think that might be hard to factor in.) Has anyone seen studies about this?
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