There are more than 50 million elementary, middle school,
and high school students in the public schools of the United States and there
are more than 3 million teachers. In less than a month, in some form or
another, these children and their teachers are scheduled to go back to school.
Judging from the anecdotal evidence one hears on cable news and reads online,
parents and teachers are beside themselves with anxiety about the dangers of
returning to school. Insanely, irrationally, self destructively Trump and his
appalling Secretary of Education have placed themselves on the wrong side of
the issue of reopening the schools. The protests triggered by the death of
George Floyd are as nothing compared with the upheavals that will be caused as
outbreaks of the virus occur in this classroom or that and are immediately
reported on television and online. Already teachers are being interviewed who have announced that they will retire rather than be forced to go back into the
classroom and risked their lives. If you alienate parents with children and
also alienate senior citizens frightened by the virus, there isn’t much left in
the way of a “base” on which to build an electoral strategy.
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19 comments:
Call me Eeyore, but I think that his base will swallow anything. Just today on "Fox News Sunday", the Abominable Showman once again refused to say whether he'll accept the results of the election if he loses. Why aren't the self-declared Constitution-loving patriots up in arms?
Different Anonymous here.
I think Trump and DeVos's push for schools to re-open is also a way of escalating their war on public education, disciplining labor (teachers' unions), etc. Even though they're desperate, that's a poor calculation. The new model of bottom-up militant organizing that teachers' unions have embraced these last few years has changed the neoliberal narrative about failing schools and entitled, lazy teachers. On top of that, the pandemic has made even more clear how much the public values the hard work of teachers. If Trump and DeVos bring it on, they're basically slicing their own wrists. I agree with Wolff: The protests will be huge.
I don't think it is obvious that Covid 19 is a major health threat to the children, as opposed to the teachers or the children's older relatives; my source:
https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/news/ovg-study-sheds-light-on-coronavirus-immunity-in-children
In that case, and since the virus may have become a permanent feature of the contemporary microbial scene, may some parents take a Stoical view of outbreaks of the illness in schools, just as their grandparents did about outbreaks of measles in the middle of the last century? (Anti-vaxxers especially?)
Very shortly we shall find out.
As Fauci and some others keep saying, this is not a question to which there is a single national answer that the state of public health knowledge dictates.Schools in areas w light virus footprints, say Montana or certain counties in more populous states, may be able to reopen w relative safety assuming appropriate cautions are taken. In other areas the picture is different and the m.o. shd be different. So putting electoral calculations aside for the moment,I don't think there is one public health approach to this that will fit the whole country. That at least is my layperson's impression. YMMV.
But insofar as Trump and DeVos take an undifferentiated one size fits all approach, they are being v unwise in prob political and public health terms.
This study, in S. Korea, suggests that it may not be unsafe to open school for the lower grades (roughly K-4), but once you get past that age, the risk of children spreading the disease is not much different from that of adults. The speculation is that older children, with bigger bodies and greater volume of air exhaled spread more viral particles. (h/t Naked Capitalism. The tone of the material produced there tends to the fervid or hyperbolic but I have found the news links to be very useful. Much from foreign English-language media).
Anecdotal evidence suggests that young children can be affected by Covid19.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/texas-coronavirus-cases-child-care-facilities/index.html
The study cited above reads, in part,
"We also found the highest COVID-19 rate (18.6% [95% CI 14.0%–24.0%]) for household contacts of school-aged children and the lowest (5.3% [95% CI 1.3%–13.7%]) for household contacts of children 0–9 years in the middle of school closure. Despite closure of their schools, these children might have interacted with each other, although we do not have data to support that hypothesis. A contact survey in Wuhan and Shanghai, China, showed that school closure and social distancing significantly reduced the rate of COVID-19 among contacts of school-aged children.... In the case of seasonal influenza epidemics, the highest secondary attack rate occurs among young children.... Children who attend day care or school also are at high risk for transmitting respiratory viruses to household members.... The low detection rate for household contacts of preschool-aged children in South Korea might be attributable to social distancing during these periods. Yet, a recent report from Shenzhen, China, showed that the proportion of infected children increased during the outbreak from 2% to 13%, suggesting the importance of school closure (11). Further evidence, including serologic studies, is needed to evaluate the public health benefit of school closure as part of mitigation strategies...."
I'm don't think that this says that it "may not be unsafe" to open schools at the lower grades; it seems to be saying that the matter needs further study....
I agree with the idea that Trump and DeVos are waging war against public education. I think the failed attempt at making universities send foreign students back to their home countries unless classes were held on campus was also part of that attack.
"I think the failed attempt at making universities send foreign students back to their home countries unless classes were held on campus was also part of that attack."
Oh, it probably wasn't a failed attempt. COVID combined with the uncertainty of visa status and ICE raids will be more than enough to convince many thousands of foreign students to just stay at home this year.
My understanding us that it's more of a question of foreign students already here not having to go home than it is of those now at home coming here.
My understanding is the same as David Palmeter's on this point.
By failure, I was referring to the fact that "the new directive [was] rescinded 'on a nationwide basis'."
a denouement is about to unfold:
- 50 million kids go back to school amid a pandemic
- 28 million Americans cannot pay their rent
- highly armed and camouflaged federal agents pour into "blue" cities, probably
with the intention of inciting violence...while state police? national guard are
directed to arrest federal agents...??
- the Abominable Showman (great name!) declares presidential election to be delayed indefinitely due to mail-in-ballot rigging...whle dangerous leftists, who hate America, destroy sacred statues....
So my question is: which side will the military be on? both?
So who
Which side will the military be on?
Biden isn't Angela Davis.
You're right, s.w.; I've always have thought of Biden as "Trump Lite." However, first he has to get into office before he gets into history and, thus, may need the military to do so. Today's headlines are calling the situation in Portland and other places a "Constitutional Crisis." It's sort of like a domestic "wag the dog" ploy on the part of Trump. If this crisis deepens - i.e., shots fired between state and federal forces, or if Trump refuses to step down, it will be time for the "deep state" to play their card. And by deep state I am referring to the national security state, especially the CIA, as well as corporate and military actors.It won't be so tidy as the Supreme Court selecting Bush nor as quick and dirty as St. Jack's one way trip to Dallas. Does a more militant and overt (and possibly)left-Covid-BLM uprising threaten the power of right wing corporate-political factions within the ruling class as well as the more liberal-all-roads-lead-to-Putin faction? My guess is that the liberal-all-roads-lead-to Putin faction, working with the CIA, will align, temporarily, with the Covid-BLM uprising, and insure a Biden's victory. And then Biden, a no Angela Davis mind you, with carrots and sticks, will restore the normal (think Obama), obscenely unequal order and carceral state. Either way, left forces are gathering strength and will likely challenge and expose
a Biden regime. Can the the center hold?
When asked a few weeks ago what would happen if Trump refused to step down, Biden answered that the Army would remove him. I'm sure that you've all seen that news. If Biden says that, it's probable that he and the generals have already talked about the possible problem and come to an agreement, perhaps brokered by Obama.
Biden has never opposed a U.S. war or called for cutting military spending or for cutting back on the U.S. empire abroad. If I were a general and had to choose between Biden and Trump, I'd opt for Biden. Trump is unstable, breaks his word and has mismanaged everything; Biden is dependable, says what he is supposed to say and is a reasonably efficient manager.
I assume that the generals are rational actors and smart: they didn't inherit wealth, but worked or schemed through way up in a competitive hierarchical system. What's more, if the general are the actors who ensure that Biden becomes president, he will be beholden to them and owe them favors.
Biden opposed the 2009 Afghanistan "surge."
LFC,
Biden's peace-loving nature is evident at first sight.
As a matter of fact, the reason that he wears those dark sunglasses is that on the street people often mistake him for Joan Baez and demand that he sing "We Shall Overcome" for them and he's shy.
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