FUN TIMES

I remain mesmerized by the prospect of chaos in the House of Representatives next Tuesday when the new Congress meets, is sworn in, and attempts to choose a Speaker. There will be 434 representatives (the fourth Virginia district is vacant because of the death of the recently reelected Democrat and will be filled on February 21 in the special election that will almost certainly be won by the Democrats.)

 

What will happen next Tuesday? There are two possibilities: the first is that between now and then Kevin McCarthy manages to find something he has not already given to the crazies in his party that will win one or more of the five holdouts to his side. The prospect of that happening is, so far as I can tell, rather dim. The second possibility is that McCarthy, Hakim Jeffries, and Andy Biggs be nominated. Jeffries will get 212 votes, Biggs will get five votes or possibly more, and McCarthy will fall short of the 218 he needs. At that point, another vote will be held (apparently almost immediately.)

 

There then seem to be three possibilities: McCarthy will succeed in bribing one of the five holdouts – perhaps by reinstating the old rule that a single member of the House can at any time call for a vote on vacating the chair. The second possibility is that everybody will vote the same in the second round as in the first. The third possibility, if one is to believe the rumors, is that someone will nominate Steve Scalise. At that point, I imagine, Biggs will withdraw and a vote will be held. Jeffries will still get 212 votes, Scalise will get some number – 50, 75, 100, who knows – and McCarthy will get the rest. No one will have 218 and yet another vote be called.

 

I do not think McCarthy is going to bow out and support Scalise. What is more, my guess is that McCarthy has at least four loyalists plus himself who will block Scalise from getting the required 218. At this point, all bets are off. The Democrats are sitting there with an enormous block of 212 votes, and very quietly, guided by the wisdom and experience of Nancy Pelosi, Jeffries will be meditating about whether there is some move the Democrats can make.

 

There are 19 Republicans who won their seats in districts that Biden carried in the presidential election. They are not likely to want a total crazy as Speaker.  Furthermore, we must remember that the Speaker does not have to be a member of the House. I simply have no idea how this is going to play out, but remember, until a Speaker is chosen, committee chairs cannot be appointed and so Jim Jordan cannot launch his 24 hour a day investigation of Hunter Biden.

 

My plans for January 3 include a supply of candied popcorn and a soft cushion.