The House of Representatives will vote Articles of Impeachment, almost certainly before Thanksgiving. How can I be so sure? For three reasons:
First, a majority of the members of the House have announced that they are for impeachment.
Second, the Democrats have stated that if the Administration fails to honor subpoenas, the first of which went out yesterday, they will construe that failure as Obstruction of Congress and add it to the other Articles, thus depriving the Administration of any opportunity to stall.
And Third, because Speaker Pelosi and Chairman Schiff have openly identified Thanksgiving as their target date, something they would not do unless they believed they could meet it.
This will be only the third time a President has been impeached [Nixon resigned before he could be impeached], and it is worth pausing to note the speed with which the ground has shifted beneath Trump's feet. It is also a time to tip one's hat to Nancy Pelosi, who has played this flawlessly, with of course massive help from Trump.
When the Articles of Impeachment land with a thud on Mitch McConnell's desk, they will present an impossible choice to half a dozen Republican Senators up for reelection, including McConnell himself.
Will Trump serve out his full term of office? It is too soon to judge, but if one or several of the White House officials who served as the whistleblower's sources decide to save themselves and come forward, there is no telling.
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A Commentary on the Passing Scene by Robert Paul Wolff rwolff@afroam.umass.edu
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4 comments:
"Nancy Pelosi, who has played this flawlessly"
It may appear that way but Pelosi lucked out in that she got a huge assist with the skill and bravery of the current whistleblower.According to Ryan Grim at the Intercept, Pelosi finally endorse impeachment at the latest caucus because so many of the caucus members, following the recess, reported that they took a pretty bad beating, especially after the Lowandoski hearing where the Dems looked helpless and pitiful. Let us not forget AOC's attack on Pelosi (without mentioning her name) prior to the meeting that her foot dragging was "complicit" in obstruction or Rep. Jared Huffman's (D-CA) remark, “I'm sick of the parsing, dithering & political over calculating.”
While the current whistleblower is likely to receive protection and kudos, let us not forget that the non-agency whistleblowers - Manning, Assange, and Snowden - either continue to rot in jail, receive huge financial penalties, and/or live in exile
As to the “political question” that pundits are always hand-wringing over, it seems to me that impeachment will be a welcome development for those of us who despise the current occupant of the White House and want to see his demise hastened. The polls showing rapidly-rising support for impeachment are encouring, and are to be expected given that the behavior on the part of T***p and his corrupt associates truly is outrageous (notwithstanding the run-of-the-mill and perfectly legal corruption having to do with Biden & Son). Anyone can see that this was plainly a mafia-style shakedown. He deserves to be smacked down now. And by all reports, he percieves impeachment as a stain on his legacy and is truly rattled — good!
Still, I feel as though what’s needed is just one more high-ranking official to come out and squeal. That’ll be the cherry on top. The “special envoy” to Ukraine just resigned, so maybe it’ll be him. Who knows?
I don’t think, though, that the current occupant will be removed. All this speculation about Republican Senators breaking ranks strikes me as just wishful thinking.
Ed Barreras,
You may be right that the current occupant won't be removed. I've been trying to imagine under what circumstances there would be a collapse of Republican support in the Senate. It strikes me that this would only occur if Republicans saw it as in their own interest to break with Trump. Here are two reasons why that might occur:
1. New facts emerge that shift public opinion.
2. Trump becomes even more erratic and dangerous than he already is. We saw a hint of that when he alluded to how spies were taken care of in the old days.
I don't know that either one or both will occur. But they might. We'll have to wait.
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