The Democratic Party primary delegate allocation rules
stipulate that a candidate must get at least 15% of the vote in a state to
qualify for any of that state’s at-large delegates and at least 15% of the
votes in a Congressional District to get any of that CD’s delegates. In a race like the present one with four or
five viable candidates vying for delegates and with Sanders leading in most
polls in almost all Super Tuesday states, a shift of a few percentage points
above or below the 15% threshold for three or so of the second tier candidates
could make the difference between a huge delegate haul and a sizable but not
overwhelming delegate haul for Sanders.
Susie and I leave for Paris on March 3rd [!!!] so when we
get to our apartment and turn on the TV, we will find out how things have gone
down. We will vote here at our
retirement home [we are a precinct] before we leave for the airport.
8 comments:
The NY Times has an article headlined: “The Next Hurdle for Bernie Sanders: Nevada’s Top Union Dislikes ‘Medicare for All.’”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/16/us/politics/sanders-nevada-medicare-for-all.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage
This has been my worry from Day One: thousands of union workers, who have won gold-plated “Cadillac” health plans in collective bargaining—winning the policies in lieu of increased pay in the same amount—don’t want to lose those policies. Those policies cover far more than Medicare does. If the Democratic candidate runs on M4A, that candidate will lose thousands upon thousands of union votes—votes that would go to another Democrat.
I believe that M4A is a bridge too far, and that attempting to cross it will re-elect Trump.
DP—you seem unable to make basic distinctions.
1) Actually existing Medicare vs. ‘Medicare’ under Sanders’ M4A plan. The former doesn’t cover lots of important things, and so is less generous than the, um, ‘Cadillac’ plans. But the latter covers far more than even the most generous health plans. So, -1 here.
2) Union leadership vs. rank-and-file. Sanders is actually overwhelmingly popular among the Culinary r-and-f membership, from all reports. The leadership dislikes his plan because they recognize that their power would diminish under M4A. Now, one of the things they can absolutely put in front of membership to claim success is that they have fought to keep providing relatively good health insurance from their members. But that arg goes out the window under M4A. So, -2 as of now, DP.
3) Rank-and-file concerns actually existing vs. their concerns under a society with M4A.. You Imply that ‘thousands of union members’ have elected good health insurance over an increase in pay. Fair enough—given skyrocketing health care costs, I’d also elect that over increased wages. But now under M4A, when I no longer have concerns about health care costs, I absolutely would be empowered to seek higher wages. In fact, you this ignore why many unions are overwhelmingly *enthusiastix* aboutM4A, because it effectively secured as a basic human right something unions have had to expend huge amounts of labor and energy, not to mention political capital, in the bargaining process, forgoing wage increases and other benefit increases in the process. Unions generally love M4A b/c it empowers them to secure a far richer contract for their members than they could previously. -3 now, David.
4) To segue from the last: The Nevada Culinary unionleadership vs. every other union leadership in the nation. Sanders, for, among other reasons, those pointed out above, is overwhelmingly ahead of other candidates in endorsements from union leaderships, not to even mention rank-and-file support, where he’s even more ahead. So your ‘cause for concern’ is moot. -4 now, Mr. Palmerer. Sad!
Sanders has 29 union endorsements, Biden only has 9.
When Sanders loses union endorsements it's usually against their members. A good example of this was the Working Families Party's endorsement of Warren, where it refused to release the numbers of its member vote because they wanted Sanders:
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/09/working-families-party-endorsement-elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders
The Culinary Union endorsement is particularly despicable. It followed a social media attack on Sanders coordinated by Culinary Union leadership with Clintonian Think Tank, Center for American Progress. They distributed flyers to members saying that Sanders would end their healthcare and when his supporters predictably reacted, they started a "Sanders campaign attacked us" meme.
https://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2020/02/culinary-union-nevada-bernie-sanders-warren.html
This is the same union that worked with Harry Reed in 2016 to get casinos to give employees the day off and take them to the polls to deliver the state to Hillary:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2016/02/20/hillary-clinton-wins-nevada-caucus-harry-reid-culinary-union-jon-ralston/80688750/
The, "Nevada Culinary union leadership" is a front organization lobbying on behalf of far more sinister forces---such as would deprive us of goose livers.
Paul and Anonymous--I hope you're right. I worry about PA,Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Related news from today, electrical workers union members are mad that the leadership endorsed Biden without a member vote:
http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/22315/ibew-labor-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-endorsement
For those curious about the Culinary Union's dustup with Sanders, here's the flyer that started it:
On most issues, they give identical descriptions for every candidate's position.
For Warren: "Medicare for all. Replace Culinary Healthcare after 3-year transition."
For Sanders: "End Culinary Healthcare. Require 'Medicare for All'."
http://inthesetimes.com/working/entry/22315/ibew-labor-bernie-sanders-joe-biden-endorsement
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