As if Iowa weren't enough, and the State of the Union weren't enough, and the"*acquittal" weren't enough, and the lingering of my cold weren't enough, this morning a storm knocked out the power in this part of North Carolina. It is a measure of the baleful effects of my cold on my usual high spirits that I consider these all of roughly equal significance. Well, the power is back on anyway, so I shall spend a few minutes prognosticating.
Here is a possible scenario. After Super Tuesday [March 3rd], Klobuchar, Yang, Bennett, Gabbard, Steyer, Patrick, and whomever else is among the also-rans drop out, leaving Sanders, Warren, Buttegieg, Biden, and Mr. Moneybags still in it. Sanders racks up lots of delegates, Warren and Buttegieg get decent numbers, Biden gets enough to keep him alive, albeit on life support financially, and Bloomberg actually gets relatively few delegates despite his billions, given the rules that govern these things. As the primary season plods on, the Democratic Establishment goes into full freak-out mode at the prospect of a Bernie candidacy, and they do everything they can to keep him from a first ballot victory [which he probably cannot manage to win anyway,]
BECAUSE, on the second and subsequent ballots, the unpledged delegates [aka superdelegates] get to weigh in. This year, there are 3979 pledged delegates to the Democratic Convention and 771 unpledged delegates. I suspect that very few of those 771 will be Bernie Bros, which means that some sort of anyone but Bernie movement might win ...
UNLESS Bernie and Warren join hands and sing Kumbayah all the way to the White House.
As you can see, I am still feverish.
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6 comments:
I recall reading that in 2016 superdelegates were allowed to vote on the first ballot at the convention, and the change in 2020, letting them vote only on the second and subsequent ballots, was something the Sanders campaign pushed for. Which is not to say that the superdelegates might not, as things work out, be able to block his nomination.
Dr. Wolff,
I reached the same conclusion sans fever. That's why I suggested in an earlier post that Sanders and Warren strike a deal now. We can judge Bloomberg's campaign strategy after the Super Tuesday results are in. It may be he pulls support from the Buttigieg and Biden. Too soon to tell. One thing is probable, though: if Bernie's nomination is being blocked by the institutional party, we'll have a social democratic party in the next presidential election. I have never seen a local, state, of national party organization that didn't prioritize its institutional interests.
All of this scares the hell out of me. I prefer Bernie. I'll vote for Biden or Bloomberg. The important thing--far, far more important than who is the Democratic nominee--is defeating Trump. Everything else pales in comparison.
Jesus, what planet do you live on? Warren is here for one purpose: to stop Bernie. When she thought Biden could win she disgustingly lied about an alleged sexist comment he made to earn Biden’s VP nomination. You people are every bit as bad as Trump.
Very possible. And that scenario, I daresay, would be the end of the Democrats as a party. They'll have effectively blacklisted themselves in the eyes of the younger generations, and experience a collapse we haven't seen since the fall of the old Whig party.
And, I suspect, no one but Bernie can defeat Donald Trump. That may seem outlandish, but, as in 2016, as far as I can tell the old Rustbelt will be crucial, and I don't see anyone on the Democrats' side with the message to win it but Bernie. "We can't really do anything bold, sorry" ala all the moderates on stage just isn't a winning message!
I like Yang, but seeing how the Democrats are running things, I really don't want them in charge of the country. I'm leaning on having Trump four more he's not doing a terrible job. That will give the Democrats time to shore things up, they sure need it.
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